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(Showing results 1 to 8 of 8)



The Incidence of Severance Taxes in a Residual Demand Framework

Albert L. Danielsen and Phillip A. Cartwright

Year: 1985
Volume: Volume 6
Number: Special Issue
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol6-NoSI-19
No Abstract



The World Oil Market: An Examination Using Small-Scale Models

David Jay Green

Year: 1988
Volume: Volume 9
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol9-No3-2
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Abstract:
This article presents the results of a series of exercises in the use of small-scale models to explain the spot price of crude oil. Small scale modeling-the use of a limited number of equations-involves a number of disadvantages: many interesting questions will have to be ignored and often a sense of realism may be sacrificed. However, small-scale models are an essential part of economic research. Compared to large, multi-equation models, small-scale models are often transparent-causal relations are clearly visible. In addition, small-scale models can often be easily updated and reexamined in the light of new information or assumptions. This is particularly important in policy-making when time and clear communication are at a premium.



Oil Industry Structure and Evolving Markets

Joe Roeber

Year: 1994
Volume: Volume 15
Number: Special Issue
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol15-NoSI-14
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Abstract:
Of all the changes in the oil industry over the past 20 years, the most radical have taken place in the market, and in the formation of prices. These are both a response to and a cause of changes in industry structure. From plannable supplies at relatively stable prices, companies have had to learn to handle short term supplies in condition of extreme volatility. Management of the resulting price risk has become a central role of the companies' supply departments, and the use of paper markets (forward, futures and derivatives) has become an integral part of price formation. It is not impossible that the changes would be reversed, if the conditions that brought them into being-surplus production and de-integrated supply structures-were reversed in conditions of scarcity, but it is highly unlikely. Far more likely, is that risk management and the use of paper markets will increase in importance.



What Does It All Mean?

Edward W. Erickson

Year: 1994
Volume: Volume 15
Number: Special Issue
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol15-NoSI-19
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Abstract:
Three hypotheses about future market balances in the world petroleum market are identified in this paper. Two are relatively benign and one is more harsh. Examination of constraints upon OPEC behavior and increasing market and policy sophistication in consuming countries suggests that some combination of the more benign hypotheses is apt to prevail.



Are Regional Oil Markets Growing Closer Together?: An Arbitrage Cost Approach

Andrew N. Kleit

Year: 2001
Volume: Volume22
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol22-No2-1
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Abstract:
A large number of papers published in the last decade have attempted to show that energy markets have grown more integrated. These articles attempt to infer that various markets have become more "unified" because the correlation (in various forms) of prices between markets has increased during the last several years. This article suggests that a more appropriate modeling technique based on the theory of arbitrage as presented in Spiller and Wood (1988a and b), is better suited to answering this question. In this paper, the arbitrage technique is extended and applied to light crude oil markets in the 1990s. Arbitrage costs between markets are estimated. In addition, the hypothesis that crude oil markets have converged during this period is tested. Substantial though mixed support is gained for this hypothesis.



The Impact of OPEC Conference Outcomes on World Oil Prices 1984-2001

Franz Wirl and Azra Kujundzic

Year: 2004
Volume: Volume 25
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol25-No1-3
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Abstract:
This paper investigates how far OPEC influences world oil markets. We ask the question: What is the impact of the decisions of the OPEC Conference, the supreme authority of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, on world oil prices? Extracting the Conference s decisions from the communiqu�s of fifty meetings from 1984-2001, these decisions were compared with the subsequent market developments. The result is that this impact is weak at best, and if at all then restricted to meetings recommending a price increase. However, the opposite claim (found in the literature) - the Conference is simply following the market - was also not supported either. Another interesting observation is the little autocorrelation between the decisions of the Conference. This suggests that the ministers decisions accommodate quickly and efficiently recent events.



Examining Asymmetric Behavior in US Petroleum Futures and Spot Prices

Bradley T. Ewing, Shawkat M. Hammoudeh and Mark A. Thompson

Year: 2006
Volume: Volume 27
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol27-No3-2
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Abstract:
This paper uses the momentum-threshold autoregressive (M-TAR) model to examine the possible asymmetric relationship between petroleum futures and spot prices for three different markets: crude oil, heating oil, and gasoline in the United States. The results indicate that the futures and spot prices for each petroleum type are cointegrated when allowing for asymmetric adjustment for each of these energy markets. We further investigate the asymmetric behavior between the futures and spot prices by estimating the M-TAR error-correction model. The M-TAR model allows us to document the adjustments that these markets undergo in response to changes in the basis.



Structure Matters: Oil Markets Enter the Adelman Era

Philip K. Verleger Jr.

Year: 2015
Volume: Volume 36
Number: Adelman Special Issue
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.36.SI1.pver
View Abstract

Abstract:
The 2014/2015 oil price collapse surprised the many economists who have published brilliant econometric explanations of oil price behavior. The sharp decline would not have caught Morris Adelman unawares. Professor Adelman's lifelong research focused on the link between market structure and price behavior. His seminal work on industry structure, beginning with grocery retailer A&P, has provided a framework that can be used to explain oil price fluctuations that have occurred over the past four decades. His approach may not be as accurate as the elegant econometric models that dominate today's literature but it does have one clear advantage: it provides far greater clarity on the way forward.





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