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(Showing results 1 to 4 of 4)



Modeling and Forecasting the Demand for Electricity in New Zealand: A Comparison of Alternative Approaches

Koli Fatai, Les Oxley and Frank G. Scrimgeour

Year: 2003
Volume: Volume 24
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol24-No1-4
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Abstract:
Models of energy demand in New Zealand have typically been based upon either a partial general equilibrium approach or constructed from spreadsheet models. The results created by such methods predict that electricity is forecast to be the fastest growing energy demanded by households and the industrial sector for the next two decades. Furthermore, aggregate electricity demand is forecast to grow at a constant rate for the next two decades. In this paper we attempt to model and forecast electricity demand using a number of recent econometric approaches including Engle-Granger's Error Correction Model, Phillip and Hansen's (1990) Fully Modified Least Squares, and the AutoRegressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach of Pesaran et al. (1996, 1998). We identify the model with the smallest forecasting error using a series of forecasting measures and conclude that the new ARDL approach of Pesaran et al., has better forecasting performance than the other approaches considered.



Asian Spot Prices for LNG and other Energy Commodities

Abdullahi Alim, Peter R. Hartley, and Yihui Lan

Year: 2018
Volume: Volume 39
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.39.1.aali
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Abstract:
We investigate the relationship between the Japan-Korea Marker (JKM) price of LNG, which has become more important as spot trading of LNG has increased, and spot prices of Brent oil, fuel oil and thermal coal in Asia. We find that the JKM price appears to reflect inter-fuel competition in Asia. In this respect, it could be better than oil or other spot natural gas prices as a reference price for indexing long-term LNG contracts in Asia. The JKM may also be suitable for underpinning the development of an LNG pricing hub in Asia with associated derivatives markets.



Price Adjustments and Transaction Costs in the European Natural Gas Market

Rafael Garaffa, Alexandre Szklo, André F. P. Lucena, and José Gustavo Féres

Year: 2019
Volume: Volume 40
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.40.1.rgar
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Abstract:
The presence of long-term contracts indexed to oil prices is a key feature of the evolution of the European natural gas industry. During the 2000's, the European Commission (EC) promoted reforms to establish a single and integrated natural gas market, leading to the development of short-term regional markets based on hubs. This paper tests the hypothesis that asymmetric price responses in the continental European hubs derive from transaction costs. By applying linear and nonlinear error correction models, it assesses the price transmission dynamics and the degree of integration between the German, the Belgium and the Dutch spot markets. The models identified cointegration relations, price asymmetries and transaction costs in these markets. Results show a high degree of integration across regions, with prices converging rapidly to their long-run equilibrium. However, asymmetric price adjustments reveal the presence of transaction costs in the German regional hub.



The U.S. Fracking Boom: Impact on Oil Prices

Manuel Frondel and Marco Horvath

Year: 2019
Volume: Volume 40
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.40.4.mfro
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Abstract:
As of late 2008, the steady decline of U.S. crude oil production over the last decades was reversed by the increased adoption of the hydraulic fracturing ("fracking") technology. Adapting the supply-side model proposed by Kaufmann et al. (2004) to assess OPEC's ability to influence real oil prices, this paper investigates the effect of the increase in U.S. oil production due to fracking on world oil prices. Among our key results obtained from (dynamic) OLS estimations, there is a statistically significant negative long-run relationship between increased U.S. oil production and oil prices.





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