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Aggregate Elasticity of Energy Demand

EMF 4 Working Group

Year: 1981
Volume: Volume 2
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol2-No2-3
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Abstract:
The first EMF study, "Energy and the Economy," produced estimates of the aggregate elasticity of substitution for primary energy implicit in six models of energy and the economy.' In that study, the working group identified the importance of the aggregate elasticity and called for an examination of more detailed demand models. During its review of the study, the EMF Senior Advisory Panel cited the importance of a careful investigation of energy demand models to clarify estimates of the aggregate elasticity. The present study is a response to those suggestions.



The Price Elasticity for Gasoline Revisited

Rolando F. Pelaez

Year: 1981
Volume: Volume 2
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol2-No4-6
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Abstract:
Energy conservation has been a major goal of three administrations, yet disagreement about how to achieve it has hampered conservation efforts. Advocates of nonmarket rationing claim that gasoline demand is highly inelastic, and hence that higher prices would result mainly in substantial income redistribution. In contrast, economists typically point to the price mechanism as the best method for promoting conservation. Clearly the issue depends to a great degree on the price elasticity of demand for energy. Since nearly one-half of the petroleum consumed in the United States is used as motor fuel, this note focuses on the price elasticity for gasoline.



Petroleum Price Elasticity, Income Effects, and OPEC's Pricing Policy

F. Gerard Adams and Jaime Marquez

Year: 1984
Volume: Volume 5
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol5-No1-7
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Abstract:
A standard result from static economic theory is that a monopolist with zero cost will maximize profits by charging the price at which the demand has unit elasticity. Yet, the demand for petroleum, as seen by consumers, is price inelastic, and empirical estimates of the price elasticity for petroleum are typically less than one. Given the relatively low production cost for Middle East oil and the optimization rule referred to above, a natural question is whether OPEC, acting as a monopoly, has exhausted its potential for forcing price increases or whether it will ultimately be able to charge still higher prices as it tries to optimize its earnings. This possibility of higher oil prices is important for OPEC and for oil-consuming countries-for OPEC because the finite nature of resources implies that excess production today represents an irrecoverable loss; for consuming countries because of the high cost of oil and the adverse consequences of still higher oil prices on inflation and unemployment.



Gasoline Demand Survey

Carol A. Dahl

Year: 1986
Volume: Volume 7
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol7-No1-5
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Abstract:
Gasoline demand, which represents almost a quarter of world petroleum consumption, has been the focus of a considerable amount of econometric work since the 1973 oil embargo. However, researchers and policymakers when considering this work are confronted with a bewildering array of elasticities and results that come from a variety of data sets and model types. This survey stratifies these elasticities for statistical analysis and development of summary elasticities, identifies basic issues, and illustrates a strategy for summarizing studies that should be useful to policymakers and researchers in any area of applied work. Because space prohibits discussing all of this work, this survey is limited to those studies that have estimates for gasoline demand, vehicle miles traveled, and miles per gallon.



Price Elasticity of Demand for Oil and the Terms of Trade of the OPEC Countries

M. M. Metwally and A. T. Arab

Year: 1987
Volume: Volume 8
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol8-No1-4
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Abstract:
The price elasticity of demand for oil has changed significantly since the sharp rise in oil prices in late 1973. Although oil is still a necessary commodity with a price elasticity of less than one, the policies recently introduced by many importing countries to store oil and reduce its consumption, the continuous development of energy alternatives, and the increase in oil suppliers have contributed significantly to the rise in the price elasticity of demand for this vital commodity.



Price Elasticities of Natural Gas Demand in France and West Germany

Javier Estrada and Ole Fugleberg

Year: 1989
Volume: Volume 10
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol10-No3-5
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Abstract:
This article analyzes the own-price elasticities of natural gas and cross-price elasticities between gas and other fuels in France and West Germany. A model with constant substitution elasticities would not give enough information to study interfuel competition. Therefore we adopted a model based on translog functions, which has few restrictions on measuring elasticities of energy demand.



OECD Oil Demand Dynamics: Trends and Asymmetries

William W. Hogan

Year: 1993
Volume: Volume 14
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol14-No1-6
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Abstract:
Oil market data of the 1980s reject a simple, symmetric reduced-form model of dynamic oil demand in the OECD countries. Tests of price asymmetric long-run demand models produce ambiguous results. The pooled time series estimations find near unitary output elasticities, and reject linear demand models in favor of constant elasticity formulations. Despite large differences in product prices and crude prices, the data cannot reject use of a crude price model fir aggregate oil demand. A reduced-form model symmetric in product prices but with technology trends for non-price oil conservation compares favorably with other formulations, and provides slightly lower projections of future oil demand intensity. However, even these lower econometric projections imply substantial increases in aggregate oil demand, increases which exceed those found in the conventional judgmental estimates.



Short Run Income Elasticity of Demand for Residential Electricity Using Consumer Expenditure Survey Data

E. Raphael Branch

Year: 1993
Volume: Volume14
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol14-No4-7
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Abstract:
This study provides information on the relationship between income and electricity consumption based on the Consumer Expenditure Interview Survey (CE) of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, U. S. Department of Labor. The income elasticity of short run demand for residential electricity is estimated using household panel data for homeowners. The CE is rich in its coverage of household characteristic data, housing characteristic data, and appliance inventory data. This makes it possible to model electricity demand across areas in the United States more comprehensively than has been done in a number of earlier studies. The results, obtained using a generalized least squares estimator (GLS), include an income elasticity of demand for electricity of 0.23 and a price elasticity of -0.20. The GLS estimator is used because OLS estimates are inefficient due to the correlation of the errors which arises from the use of panel data.



Gasoline Tax as a Corrective Tax: Estimates for the United States, 1970-1991

Jonathan Haughton and Soumodip Sarkar

Year: 1996
Volume: Volume17
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol17-No2-6
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Abstract:
Gasoline consumption creates externalities, through pollution, road congestion, accidents, and import dependence. Mat effect would a higher gasoline tax have on the related magnitudes: gasoline consumption, miles driven, and road fatalities? In this paper, separate models are estimated for gasoline use per mile, miles driven per driver, and fatalities per mile driven. We use data from 50 U.S. states and DC for 1970 through 1991, with a variety of stochastic specifications. The own-price elasticity of demand for gasoline is derived from projections with, and without, a higher gasoline tax, and is found to be between -0.12 and -0.17 in the short-run, and between -0.23 and -0.35 in the long-run. A tax of $1 per gallon would cut use by 15-20%, miles driven by 11-12%, and fatalities by 16 18% over 10 years, while raising almost $100 billion in revenue annually.



Explaining the Variation in Elasticity Estimates of Gasoline Demand in the United States: A Meta-Analysis

Molly Espey

Year: 1996
Volume: Volume17
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol17-No3-4
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Abstract:
Meta-analysis is used to determine if there are factors that systematically affect price and income elasticity estimates in studies of gasoline demand in the United States. Elasticity estimates from previous studies are used as the dependent variable with data characteristics, model structure, and estimation technique as the independent variables. Included among the explanatory variables a rejunctional form, lag structure, time span, and national setting (U.S. versus the U.S. pooled with other countries). Inclusion of vehicle ownership in gasoline demand studies is found to result in lower estimates of income elasticity, data sets which pool U.S. and foreign data result in larger (absolute) estimates of both price and income elasticity, and the small difference between static and dynamic models suggests that lagged responses to price or income changes are relatively short. This study also found that elasticity estimates appear relatively robust across estimation techniques.




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