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Forecasting the Market for Electric Vehicles in California Using Conjoint Analysis

Robin Segal

Year: 1995
Volume: Volume16
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol16-No3-4
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Abstract:
Beginning in 1998 a percentage of large auto companies' sales in California must include zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs), which at this time art! synonymous with electric vehicles. Data on consumer values and the level of consumer acceptance for alternative fuel vehicles are necessary to determine the practicality of the State's policy. This paper presents the results of a forecast for alternative fuel vehicle purchases in California. This forecast uses conjoint analysis, a multi-attribute utility market forecast methodology developed within the field of marketing research. The forecast yields several types of results, including market simulations of the alternative fuel vehicle market, relative preferences among vehicle attributes, and the identification of market segments most likely to purchase each type of vehicle. The research suggests a market for electric vehicles too small to support California's ZEV sales mandate, and a very, large market for natural gas vehicles. This paper concludes with a discussion of automobile and electric utility industry interests with regard to these forecast market consequences.



Customers' Choice Among Retail Energy Suppliers: The Willingness-to-Pay for Service Attributes

Andrew A. Goett, Kathleen Hudson and Kenneth E. Train

Year: 2000
Volume: Volume21
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol21-No4-1
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Abstract:
We examine small/medium commercial and industrial customers' choices among energy suppliers in conjoint-type experiments. The distribution of customers' willingness to pay is estimated for more than 40 attributes of suppliers, including sign-up bonuses, amount and type of renewables, billing options, bundling with other services, reductions in voltage fluctuations, and charitable contributions. These estimates provide guidance for suppliers in designing service options and to economists in anticipating the services that will be offered in competitive retail energy markets.





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