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Energy Prices and the U.S.Economy in 1979-1981

Knut Anton Mork and Robert E. Hall

Year: 1980
Volume: Volume 1
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol1-No2-2
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Abstract:
For the second time in the decade, the U.S. economy is absorbing a large sudden shock in the world price of oil. From late in 1978 to June 1979, OPEC raised the world price of oil by closeto $9 per barrel. Western industrial nations could face a repetition of the serious recession of 1974-75 on close to the same scale. The increase in the total cost of energy inputs induced by this oil price increase is about two-thirds of the increase in 1974. The potential disruption to the U.S. economy and others is a similar fraction of what occurred in the earlier episode.



Energy, Electricity, and the U.S. Economy: Emerging Trends

Fereidoon P. Sioshansi

Year: 1986
Volume: Volume 7
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol7-No2-6
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Abstract:
With memories of the energy crisis fading in the midst of an oil glut, one can reflect with objectivity on events of the past two decades. Many papers published in the past several years have attempted to analyze post-embargo energy trends and made observations on whether these new trends represent abberations in long-term relationships or represent fundamental changes in energy-economic interactions.



Crude Oil Prices and U.S. Economic Performance: Where Does the Asymmetry Reside?

Hillard G. Huntington

Year: 1998
Volume: Volume19
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol19-No4-5
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Abstract:
Sustained decreases in crude oil prices appear to affect the U.S. economy differently than sustained increases. This paper shows that a significant part of the observed asymmetry is due to adjustments within the energy sector and not within the rest of the economy. In particular, sustained decreases in petroleum product or general energy prices do not appear to have qualitatively different macroeconomic impacts than do sustained price increases. The singular focus on crude oil price changes in previous studies is misplaced. Moreover, the 1986 oil price collapse did not operate in isolation from other important events. As crude oil prices fell in the 1986 period, other factors caused a major devaluation of the U.S. dollar that had potentially important effects on the U.S. economy.



Oil Price Shocks and the U.S. Economy: Where Does the Asymmetry Originate?

Nathan S. Balke, Stephen P.A. Brown and Mine K. Yucel

Year: 2002
Volume: Volume23
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol23-No3-2
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Abstract:
Rising oil prices appear to retard aggregate U.S. economic activity by more than falling oil prices stimulate it. Past research suggests adjustment costs, financial stress, and/or monetary policy may be possible explanations for the asymmetric response. This paper uses a near vector autoregressive model of the U.S. economy to examine where the asymmetry might originate. The analysis uses counterfactual experiments to determine that monetary policy alone cannot account for the asymmetry.





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