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Unravelling Trends and Seasonality: A Structural Time Series Analysis of Transport Oil Demand in the UK and Japan

Lester C. Hunt and Yasushi Ninomiya

Year: 2003
Volume: Volume24
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol24-No3-3
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Abstract:
This paper demonstrates the importance of adequately modelling the Underlying Energy Demand Trend (UEDT) and seasonality when estimating transportation oil demand for the UK and Japan. The structural time series model is therefore employed to allow for a stochastic underlying trend and stochastic seasonals using quarterly data from the early 1970s, for both UK and Japan. It is found that the stochastic seasonals are preferred to the conventional deterministic dummies and, more importantly, the UEDT is found to be highly non-linear for both countries, with periods where it is both upward and downward sloping.



Competition in the Dutch Electricity Market: An Empirical Analysis over 2006-2011

Machiel Mulder

Year: 2015
Volume: Volume 36
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.36.2.1
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Abstract:
We assess the development of competition in the Dutch electricity wholesale market over 2006-2011. In this period domestic generation capacity, both centralized and decentralized, as well as the cross-border transmission capacity increased. Using hourly plant-level data of centralized units and engineering-costs estimates, we estimate the weighted average Lerner index. During super peak hours, the annual average value of this index decreased from 0.23 in 2006 to 0.03 in 2011, indicating more competition. We find indications that the increase in competition can be attributed to the extension of cross-border connections, a higher price elasticity of net demand and more Bertrand-like competition. Enhancing the role of decentralized generation as well as fostering integration of markets seem to be effective measures to promote competition.





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