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Weather Normalization andNatural Gas Regulation

Richard S. Bower and Nancy L. Bower

Year: 1985
Volume: Volume 6
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol6-No2-8
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Abstract:
The residential demand for natural gas is the subject of two recent articles in this journal.' Each used pooled time-series/cross-section data to estimate price and income elasticities as well as other relationships that determine the quantity of natural gas consumed by individual households or groups of households. Not surprisingly, among relationships other than price or income, the most important links consumption to weather conditions .2 Regulating natural gas distribution companies requires that this dependence of consumption on weather conditions be recognized and reflected in ratemaking. If it is not (or if it is recognized incorrectly) the regulator will approve prices and revenues that make expected return on utility investment either greater or smaller than allowed return.



A Time-Series Analysis of U.S. Petroleum Industry Inventory Behavior

Robert Krol and Shirley Svorny

Year: 1987
Volume: Volume 8
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol8-No4-6
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Abstract:
This paper examines inventory behavior in the U.S. petroleum industry. Inventories of crude oil and its three major products-gasoline, distillate and residual fuel oil-are studied. Earlier empirical studies of inventory behavior have been unable to provide evidence of the production smoothing role of inventories emphasized in the theoretical literature (see Blinder, 1984). We suggest that these results are due to a tradition of relying on a partial-adjustment model to explain inventory behavior. We feel that the partial-adjustment model ignores potentially significant relationships between lagged values of explanatory variables and inventories implied by dynamic analysis. This leads us to investigate the time-series properties of petroleum inventories using the vector autoregression(VAR) methodology developed by Sims (1980).



Oil Shocks and the Demand for Electricity

Edward C Kokkelenberg and Timothy D. Mount

Year: 1993
Volume: Volume 14
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol14-No2-6
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Abstract:
This paper uses a Structural Econometric Model - Time Series Analysis to forecast the demand for electricity in the United States. The main innovation is to incorporate price shocks for oil into the model. The results show that if forecasts had been made with this model in the mid-1970s, they would have predicted the drop in the growth of demand more promptly than did the electric utility industry forecasts. Using current data, forecasts of demand for the year 2000 from the model are higher than industry forecasts, suggesting a reversal of the situation that existed in the 1970s.



Modelling and Forecasting Oil Prices: The Role of Asymmetric Cycles

Jesus Crespo Cuaresma, Adusei Jumah and Sohbet Karbuz

Year: 2009
Volume: Volume 30
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol30-No3-4
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Abstract:
Using a simple unobserved components model, we show that explicitly modelling asymmetric cycles on crude oil prices improves the forecast ability of univariate time series models of the oil price.



Stochastic Trends and Technical Change: The Case of Energy Consumption in the British Industrial and Domestic Sectors

Paolo Agnolucci

Year: 2010
Volume: Volume 31
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol31-No4-5
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Abstract:
This paper estimates energy demand in the British domestic and indus�trial sectors and analyzes the extent to which energy-saving technological change is exogenous, or induced by the energy price. The paper implements models with a linear trend, models making use of the price decomposition of Dargay and Gately (1995a) and the Structural Time Series Models (STSMs) of Harvey (1989). Stochastic trends have been found to be rather important while in neither of the sectors assessed in this study could the hypothesis of symmetric price effects be rejected. Following Hunt and Judge (2005), stochastic trend and asymmetric price effects are found to be substitutes in the industrial sector. In particular we con�clude that asymmetric price effects can substitute for the slope in the stochastic trend. Finally, energy consumption in the industrial sector is strongly in.uenced by price while the effect of price in the domestic sector is markedly smaller.



Dead Battery? Wind Power, the Spot Market, and Hydropower Interaction in the Nordic Electricity Market

Johannes Mauritzen

Year: 2013
Volume: Volume 34
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.34.1.5
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Abstract:
It is well established within both the economics and power system engineering literature that hydropower can act as a complement to large amounts of intermittent energy. In particular hydropower can act as a "battery" where large amounts of wind power are installed. In this paper I use simple distributed lag models with data from Denmark and Norway. I find that increased wind power in Denmark causes increased marginal exports to Norway and that this effect is larger during periods of net exports when it is difficult to displace local production. Increased wind power can also be shown to slightly reduce prices in southern Norway in the short-run. Finally, I estimate that as much as 40 percent of wind power produced in Denmark is stored in Norwegian hydropower magazines.



Testing for Market Integration in the Australian National Electricity Market

Rabindra Nepal and John Foster

Year: 2016
Volume: Volume 37
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.37.4.rnep
View Abstract

Abstract:
The National Electricity Market was established in 1998 as a response to the overall liberalization and restructuring of the Australian electricity sector. The wholesale market integration effects of this establishment, however, remain to be systematically examined. We use econometric techniques based on pairwise unit root tests, cointegration analysis and a time varying coefficient model to study the extent of market integration in the physically interconnected regional markets based on daily electricity spot prices. The results from the pairwise unit root tests provide mixed evidence of price convergence while cointegration analysis does not reject the absence of persistent price differences across the physically interconnected regions. The results from the time-varying filtered coefficient model suggest that full market integration has not been achieved yet. We empirically show the presence of significant network losses and constraints across the interregional interconnectors in the NEM. Our findings suggest that convergence in generation and network ownership, coupled with harmonisation of network regulation and regulatory institutional framework, will be increasingly important factors in improving wholesale market integration across all energy-only markets as they experience an increase in the share of renewable energy.





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