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Competitive Speculative Storage and the Cost of Refinery Product Supply

Mark Newton Lowry

Year: 1989
Volume: Volume 10
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol10-No2-13
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Abstract:
In a recent article in thisjournal, Charles Tiplitz (1986) presented estimates of the cost-minimizing level of seasonal distillate fuel oil inventories in the US primary sector. The costs he considered are for storage and the extra cost of operating refineries at extreme distillate yield. The "effect of price expectations" on seasonal inventories is deliberately excluded from the analysis.The Tiplitz study has interesting and useful results. However, it raises (without answering) the question of how cost-minimizing stocks differ from stocks held for price reasons. Some readers may conclude that price-responsive stocks are somehow different from or additional to cost-minimizing stocks.This interpretation runs counter to economic intuition. n the classic theory of the firm, the profit-maximizing plan for variable inputs also minimizes the variable cost of the most profitable output level. When there is an opportunity to store, supply can be accomplished through storage as well as input processing. Stocks are a variable input in the supply process. If producers are expected-profit maximizers, they should therefore manage stocks like other inputs to minimize the expected variable cost of supply.



Business Cycles and the Behavior of Energy Prices

Apostolos Serletis and Vaughn Hullernan

Year: 1994
Volume: Volume15
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol15-No2-7
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Abstract:
This paper tests the theory of storage-the hypothesis that the marginal convenience yield on inventory falls at a decreasing rate as inventory increases in energy markets (crude oil, heating oil, and unleaded gas markets). We use the Fama and French (1988) indirect test, based on the relative variation in spot and futures prices. The results suggest that the theory holds for the energy markets.



Options and Instruments for a Deep Cut in CO2 Emissions: Carbon Dioxide Capture or Renewables, Taxes or Subsidies?

Reyer Gerlagh and Bob van der Zwaan

Year: 2006
Volume: Volume 27
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol27-No3-3
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Abstract:
This paper compares both the main physical options and the principal policy instruments to realize a deep cut in carbon dioxide emissions necessary to control global climate change. A top-down energy-economy model is used that has three emission reduction options: energy savings, a transition towards less carbon-intensive or non-carbon energy resources, and the use of carbon dioxide capture and storage technology. Five policy instruments - carbon taxes, fossil fuel taxes, non-carbon (renewable) energy subsidies, a portfolio standard for the carbon intensity of energy production, and a portfolio standard for the use of non-carbon (renewable) energy resources - are compared in terms of costs, efficiency and their impact on the composition of the energy supply system. One of our main conclusions is that a carbon intensity portfolio standard, involving the recycling of carbon taxes to support renewables deployment, is the most cost-efficient way to address the problem of global climate change. A comprehensive introduction of the capture and storage of carbon dioxide would contribute to reducing the costs of climate change control, but would not obviate the large-scale need for renewables.



The Supply of Storage for Natural Gas in California

Rocío Uría and Jeffrey Williams

Year: 2007
Volume: Volume 28
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol28-No3-3
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Abstract:
Do natural gas storage decisions in distant California respond to NYMEX futures price spreads? Daily data about flows into and out of storage facilities in California over 2002-2006 and daily spreads on NYMEX are used to investigate whether the net injection profile is consistent with the supply-of-storage curve first observed by Working for wheat. Storage decisions in California do seem to be influenced by a price signal that combines the intertemporal spread and the locational basis between California and the Henry Hub, in addition to strong seasonal and weekly cycles that determine net injections to a considerable extent. The timing and magnitude of the price response differ across storage facilities. Regulatory requirements and operational constraints also limit the response to short-lived arbitrage opportunities.



Low Stabilization Scenarios and Implications for Major World Regions from an Integrated Assessment Perspective

Detlef P. van Vuuren , Morna Isaac, Michel G.J. den Elzen, Elke Stehfest and Jasper van Vliet

Year: 2010
Volume: Volume 31
Number: Special Issue
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol31-NoSI-7
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Abstract:
In order to limit global mean temperature increase to less than 2�C, long-term greenhouse gas concentrations must remain low. This paper discusses how such low concentrations can be reached, based on results from the IMAGE modelling framework (including TIMER and FAIR). We show that the attainability of low greenhouse gas concentration targets, in particular 450 and 400 ppm CO2 equivalent critically depends on model assumptions, such as bio-energy potentials. Under standard model assumptions, these targets can be reached, although the lowest requires the use of bio-energy in combination with carbon-capture-and-storage. Regions are affected differently by ambitious climate policies in terms of energy and land use, although stringent emission reductions will be required in all regions. Resulting co-benefits of climate policy (such as energy security and air pollution) are also different across world regions.



Welfare Impacts of Electricity Storage and the Implications of Ownership Structure

Ramteen Sioshansi

Year: 2010
Volume: Volume 31
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol31-No2-7
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Abstract:
Increases in electricity price volatility have raised interest in electricity storage and its potential arbitrage value. Large utility-scale electricity storage can decrease the value of energy arbitrage by smoothing differences in prices on- and off-peak, however this price-smoothing effect can result in significant external welfare gains by reducing consumer energy costs and generator profits. As such, the incentives of merchant storage operators, consumers, and generators may not be properly aligned to ensure socially-optimal storage use. We examine storage use incentives for these different agent types and show that under most reasonable market structures a combination of merchant and consumer ownership of storage maximizes potential welfare gains from storage use.



The Value of Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles as Grid Resources

Ramteen Sioshansi and Paul Denholm

Year: 2010
Volume: Volume 31
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol31-No3-1
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Abstract:
Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) can become valuable resources for an electric power system by providing vehicle to grid (V2G) services, such as energy storage and ancillary services. We use a unit commitment model of the Texas power system to simulate system operations with different-sized PHEV fleets that do and do not provide V2G services, to estimate the value of those services. We demonstrate that a PHEV fleet can provide benefits to the system, mainly through the provision of ancillary services, reducing the need to reserve conventional generator capacity. Moreover, our analysis shows that PHEV owners are made better off by providing V2G services and we demonstrate that these benefits can reduce the time it takes to recover the higher upfront capital cost of a PHEV when compared to other vehicle types.



Russian Gas Imports in Europe: How Does Gazprom Reliability Change the Game?

Joris Morbee and Stef Proost

Year: 2010
Volume: Volume 31
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol31-No4-4
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Abstract:
Europe�s dependence on Russian gas imports has been the subject of increasing political concern after gas conflicts between Russia and Ukraine in 2006 and 2009. This paper assesses the potential impact of Russian unreliability on the European gas market, and how it affects European gas import strategy. We also study to what extent Europe should invest in strategic gas storage capacity to mitigate the effects of possible Russian unreliability. The European gas import market is described by differentiated competition between Russia and a � more reliable � competitive fringe of other exporters. The results show that Russian contract volumes and prices decline significantly as a function of unreliability, so that not only Europe but also Russia suffers if Russia�s unreliability increases. For Europe, buying gas from more reliable suppliers at a price premium turns out to be generally more attractive than building strategic gas storage capacity.



Gas Storage Valuation: Price Modelling v. Optimization Methods

Petter Bjerksund, Gunnar Stensland, and Frank Vagstad

Year: 2011
Volume: Volume 32
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol32-No1-8
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Abstract:
In the literature, one approach is to analyse gas storage within a simple one-factor price dynamics framework that is solved to optimality. We follow an alternative approach, where the market is represented by a forward curve with daily granularity, the price uncertainty is represented by six factors, and where we impose a simple and intuitive storage strategy. Based on UK natural gas market price data, we obtain the gas storage value using our approach, and compare with results from a one-factor model as well as with perfect foresight. We find that our approach captures much more of the true flexibility value than the one-factor model.



Increasing the Value of Wind with Energy Storage

Ramteen Sioshansi

Year: 2011
Volume: Volume 32
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol32-No2-1
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Abstract:
One economic disincentive to investing in wind generation is that the average market value of wind energy can be lower than that of other generation technologies. This is driven by the exercise of market power by other generators and the fact that the ability of these generators to exercise market power is inversely related to real-time wind availability. We examine the use of energy storage to mitigate this price suppression by shifting wind generation from periods with low prices to periods with higher prices. We show that storage can significantly increase the value of wind generation but the currently high capital cost of storage technologies cannot be justified on the basis of this use. Moreover, we demonstrate that this use of storage can reduce consumer surplus, the profits of other non-wind generators, and social welfare. We also examine the sensitivity of these effects to a number of parameters including storage size, storage efficiency, ownership structure, and market competitiveness--showing that a more-competitive market can make storage significantly more valuable to a wind generator.




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