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Validating Allocation Functions in Energy Models: An Experimental Methodology

V. Kerry Smith and Lawrence J. Hill

Year: 1985
Volume: Volume 6
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol6-No4-4
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Abstract:
In the late 1970s, the Energy Information Administration initiated a program calling for review and evaluation of its data and validation of energy models used in support of the policymaking process. One of the more controversial aspects of this program was the effort to validate the large-scale energy models developed under DOE auspices and, in some cases, still under development. As all participants in this process (i.e., modelers and evaluators) acknowledge, there is no absolute standard by which a model can be validated. By definition, a model is an approximation to some real-world process. It abstracts from the complexities of the process but is intended to capture essential dimensions of the forces governing outcomes of that process. Consequently, all evaluations of a model involve judgment. To illustrate the prospects for divergent yet individually sensible judgments of an energy model, consider a recent appraisal of the Regional Demand Forecasting Model (RDFOR).



The Costs of Stabilizing Global CO2 Emissions: A Probabilistic Analysis Based on Expert Judgments

Alan S. Manne and Richard G. Richels

Year: 1994
Volume: Volume15
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol15-No1-3
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Abstract:
In this paper, we examine the economic costs of stabilizing global CO2 emissions at 1990 levels. Previous analyses of the costs of emissions abatement have tended to be deterministic. That is, no attempt was made to assign probabilities to various scenarios. Policy-makers need information both on the range of possible outcomes and on their relative likelihood. We use a probability poll to characterize the uncertainty surrounding critical parameters and to construct probability distributions over the outcomes of interest. The analysis suggests a wide range for abatement costs. In order to stabilize global emissions, the annual price tag lies between a 2 and 6.8 percent of gross world product. This distribution is highly skewed. The expected costs are approximately 1.5 percent.





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