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Impacts of Multi-gas Strategies for Greenhouse Gas Emission Abatement: Insights from a Partial Equilibrium Model

Patrick Criqui, Peter Russ and Daniel Deybe

Year: 2006
Volume: Multi-Greenhouse Gas Mitigation and Climate Policy
Number: Special Issue #3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-VolSI2006-NoSI3-12
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Abstract:
The Version 5 of the POLES model has been developed for the assessment of multi-gas emission reduction strategies. Abatement options have been introduced for all non-CO2 GHGs in the Kyoto Basket and, for the agricultural sector, Marginal Abatement Cost curves have been derived from the new AGRIPOL model. Combined with an international emission permit scheme that is based on the Soft Landing approach, an emission profile respecting climate targets of 550 ppmv provides a relatively soft constraint case for developing countries. The multi-gas analyses first of all demonstrate the relevance of the approach as changing from a CO2�only to a multi-gas strategy either allows to increase total abatement of 25% for the same Marginal Abatement Cost or to decrease the MAC of approximately 30% for the same total abatement. Not surprisingly however, the impacts on world demand and primary fuel mix are less pronounced in the multi-gas case. This is easily understandable as a counterpart for introducing more margins of freedom in the abatement effort.



Transformation Patterns of the Worldwide Energy System - Scenarios for the Century with the POLES Model

Alban Kitous, Patrick Criqui, Elie Bellevrat and Bertrand Chateau

Year: 2010
Volume: Volume 31
Number: Special Issue
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol31-NoSI-3
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Abstract:
This paper presents a long-term assessment of the worldwide energy system in scenarios ranging from a baseline to a very low greenhouse gas stabilization, using the energy model POLES. Despite improved energy efficiency, the baseline scenario would lead to a doubling in energy consumption by 2050 increasing further thereafter. CO2 emissions would continue rising, driven by the coal consumed in the power production which roughly follows the GDP growth; the scarcity of oil resources would trigger the development of alternative vehicles. Conversely, a 400 ppm CO2 eq stabilization case would lead to drastic changes in supply (renewables - biomass), transformation (carbon capture and storage) and demand (low energy technologies). It transpires that the contribution to the reduction effort of low stabilization compared to a baseline scenario would be similar for final consumption (36% efficiency and 10% fuel mix) and for the power sector (25% renewables, 25% CCS, 4% nuclear). In addition this low emission scenario would alleviate the tensions on fossil energy markets.





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