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Optimal Oil Producer Behavior Considering Macrofeedbacks

Harry D. Saunders

Year: 1983
Volume: Volume 4
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol4-No4-1
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Abstract:
Oil producer decisions on oil pricing and production can affect consumer countries' economies in ways directly affecting producers' interests. The short- and long-term evolution of oil demand in consumer economies is, of course, strongly affected by producer actions. But so also may be returns on assets that producers hold in these economies.



Prospects for the World Oil Market

S. Fred Singer

Year: 1985
Volume: Volume 6
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol6-No1-3
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Abstract:
This essay recapitulates a recent review article on world oil pricing.It also summarizes my own thinking and writing about oil problems over the last decade.In brief, I maintain that the first price jump (of 1973-1974), from about $3 to $12 per barrel, represents the "correct" adjustment from the point of view of the "core" producing countries (Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the United Arabs Emirates), whose objective it should be to maximize profits over time. (I agree with Erickson and other analysts that Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and the UAE are the swing producers that set the price.)





The Incidence of an Oil Glut: Who Benefits from Cheap Crude Oil in the Midwest?

Severin Borenstein and Ryan Kellogg

Year: 2014
Volume: Volume 35
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.35.1.2
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Abstract:
Beginning in early 2011, crude oil production in the U.S. Midwest and Canada surpassed the pipeline capacity to transport it to the Gulf Coast where it could access the world oil market. As a result, the U.S. "benchmark" crude oil price in Cushing, Oklahoma, declined substantially relative to internationally traded oil. In this paper, we study how this development affected prices for refined products, focusing on the markets for motor gasoline and diesel. We find that the relative decrease in Midwest crude oil prices did not pass through to wholesale gasoline and diesel prices. This result is consistent with evidence that the marginal gallon of fuel in the Midwest is still imported from coastal locations. Our findings imply that investments in new pipeline infrastructure between the Midwest and the Gulf Coast, such as the southern segment of the controversial Keystone XL pipeline, will not raise gasoline prices in the Midwest.



Navigating the Oil Bubble: A Non-linear Heterogeneous-agent Dynamic Model of Futures Oil Pricing

Giulio Cifarelli and Paolo Paesani

Year: 2021
Volume: Volume 42
Number: Number 5
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.42.5.gcif
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Abstract:
We investigate short-term futures oil pricing over the 2003–2019 time-period in order to analyze the bubble-like dynamics, which characterizes the 2007–2009 years according to a large body of recent literature. Our research, based on the LPPL methodology and a flexible three-agent model (hedgers, fundamentalist speculators and chartists), confirms the presence of a bubble price pattern, which we attribute to the strong destabilizing behavior of speculators. In our view, this can be related to incorrect interpretation of market signals (or to the inability of trading against the market), especially by fundamentalists, combined with imitation across different categories of agents. This sets off positive feedback reactions along with self-reinforced herding of the kind best detected by the LPPL methodology.





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