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The Adjustment of U.S. Oil Demand to the Price Increases of the 1970s

Dermot Gately and Peter Rappoport

Year: 1988
Volume: Volume 9
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol9-No2-7
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Abstract:
Since the 1979-80 oil price doubling, U.S. oil consumption has declined by about 20 percent, in part because of price-induced conservation. This has caused self-congratulatory euphoria, especially in the first few months of 1986, when both the oil price and OPEC were collapsing. We argue here that the euphoria could well be short-lived. U.S. oil consumption will resume its growth and, within five to ten years, could be higher than ever. Combining these results with the consensus projection of declining domestic production, the outlook for rapidly growing dependence on imported oil is disturbing. Plus ca change, plus c'est la meme chose.



Cost Effectiveness of Future Fuel Economy Improvements

Carmen Difglio, K.G. Duleep, and David L. Green

Year: 1990
Volume: Volume 11
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol11-No1-7
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Abstract:
U.S. petroleum use today is 2 million barrels per day lower than it would have been if automobile fuel economy had not improved since 1975. This paper explores the potential for and cost of further increases in domestic passenger car fuel economy using market-ready technologies and sales mix shifts. Using technology already included in manufacturers' production plans and based on consumers' willingness to pay for increased fuel economy, domestic auto mpg could be increased from the 1987 level of 27 mpg to 31.6 mpg in 1995 without reducing vehicle size or performance from 1987 levels. By2000, 34.3 mpg can be justifed on the same basis. A higher level, 36.4 mpg, is cost-effective, based on fuel cost savings over the entire expected vehicle life. The maximum level achievable with the technology included in this analysis is 39.4 mpg, but this level would not be cost-effective. Sales mix shifts stimulated by price subsidies for efficient cars and surcharges on inefficient models can cause about I or 2 mpg of higher fuel economy before becoming too costly.



Hicks, Hayek, Hotelling, Hubbert, and Hysteria or Energy, Exhaustion, Environmentalism, and Etatism in the 21st Century

Richard L. Gordon

Year: 2009
Volume: Volume 30
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol30-No2-1
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Abstract:
In 2008, energy independence is making an unwelcome return in a greatly expanded form. The old import-danger excuse is supplemented by claims that exhaustion and global warming also will be cured. The import danger threat remains overblown. Exhaustion is not an impending problem and, if it were, it has no policy implications for anything including for imports. Similarly, whatever is true about global warming, it does not imply import controls.





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