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A Critique of the IIASA Energy Models

Dennis Meadows

Year: 1981
Volume: Volume 2
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol2-No3-2
View Abstract

Abstract:
Of the several hundred seminars and meetings that have been held by the IIASA Energy Systems Program since its inception in 1973, one still stands out in the minds of many people at the Institute. In the winter of 1977, Amory Lovins visited Laxenburg; he was invited to deliver a seminar on soft energy paths and to discuss interim results of the IIASA energy project with Dr. Wolf Hafele, founder and director of the Program and its dominant intellectual and administrative figure since its initiation.



The Supply, Demand, and Average Price of Natural Gas under Free-Market Conditions

Jack W. Wilkinson

Year: 1983
Volume: Volume 4
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol4-No1-6
View Abstract

Abstract:
Editor's note: The following paper is of particular interest because the model it summarizes is based an a market equilibration process that generates gas prices differently than the models discussed in our special issue on gas deregulation (October 1982). It should be pointed out that while this paper was reviewed by a panel of expert readers, it has not undergone the anonymous refereeing process that is standard for scholarly papers published in The Energy Journal.



Oil and Gas Supply Modeling under Uncertainty: Putting DOE Midterm Forecasts in Perspective

Carl M. Harris

Year: 1983
Volume: Volume 4
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol4-No4-4
View Abstract

Abstract:
The original purpose of this study was to examine the midterm projections of oil and gas production generated by the 1979 version of the Department of Energy's Midterm Oil and Gas Supply Modeling System (MOGSMS) for the 1979 Annual Report to Congress.q These forecasts applied to conventional oil and gas, onshore and offshore, in the lower 48 states from 1985 to 1995, inclusive. The specific objective of the work was to quantify the sensitivity of these projections to potential uncertainty in some of the model's key elements. But more generally, this exercise is viewed as but one good example of how to estimate the uncertainty in forecasts coming from a large computer-based model.



A Note on Rowen and Weyant,"Reducing the Economic Impacts of Oil Supply Interruptions: An International Perspective"

Harry D. Saunders

Year: 1984
Volume: Volume 5
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol5-No4-5
View Abstract

Abstract:
Henry Rowen and John Weyant (1982) commit the classic error of trying to answer an important policy question with tools that do not fit the job. Nor does their care in attaching explicit caveats to their conclusions overcome the fact that the limitations of their approach are serious.The question of oil supply disruptions and their potential economic impact is indeed important, and it remains so despite slack oil markets. Policymakers may yet be faced with situations that require them to decide quickly on the advisability of emergency tariffs and other such measures; and they will need reasonable assurances that the caveats analysts attach to policy recommendations do not overwhelm the recommendations themselves. Just such a danger is inherent in the inappropriate application of models and the application of inappropriate models.



Changing Climate and Energy Modeling: A Review

John Reilly and Jae Edmonds

Year: 1985
Volume: Volume 6
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol6-No3-13
View Abstract

Abstract:
In recent years, the greenhouse problem has aroused widespread public concern. Changing Climate, a report by the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) (1983), represents a useful and timely synthesis of current scientific investigations of the impact of greenhouse gases on climate and society. The report is notable both for the research it documents and its influence on the public awareness of the issue.



The Cost of Capital: Estimating the Rate of Return for Public Utilities

Donna Smith

Year: 1985
Volume: Volume 6
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol6-No3-14
View Abstract

Abstract:
In recent years, the greenhouse problem has aroused widespread public concern. Changing Climate, a report by the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) (1983), represents a useful and timely synthesis of current scientific investigations of the impact of greenhouse gases on climate and society. The report is notable both for the research it documents and its influence on the public awareness of the issue.



The Regulation of Public Utilities: Theory and Practice

Richard L. Gordon

Year: 1985
Volume: Volume 6
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol6-No3-15
View Abstract

Abstract:
In recent years, the greenhouse problem has aroused widespread public concern. Changing Climate, a report by the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) (1983), represents a useful and timely synthesis of current scientific investigations of the impact of greenhouse gases on climate and society. The report is notable both for the research it documents and its influence on the public awareness of the issue.



Coal's Contribution to U.K. Self-Sufficiency

Richard L. Gordon

Year: 1985
Volume: Volume 6
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol6-No3-16
View Abstract

Abstract:
In recent years, the greenhouse problem has aroused widespread public concern. Changing Climate, a report by the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) (1983), represents a useful and timely synthesis of current scientific investigations of the impact of greenhouse gases on climate and society. The report is notable both for the research it documents and its influence on the public awareness of the issue.



Electricity's Contribution to U.K. Self-Sufficiency

Richard L. Gordon

Year: 1985
Volume: Volume 6
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol6-No3-17
View Abstract

Abstract:
In recent years, the greenhouse problem has aroused widespread public concern. Changing Climate, a report by the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) (1983), represents a useful and timely synthesis of current scientific investigations of the impact of greenhouse gases on climate and society. The report is notable both for the research it documents and its influence on the public awareness of the issue.



Oil's Contribution to U.K. Self-Sufficiency

Richard L. Gordon

Year: 1985
Volume: Volume 6
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol6-No3-18
View Abstract

Abstract:
In recent years, the greenhouse problem has aroused widespread public concern. Changing Climate, a report by the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) (1983), represents a useful and timely synthesis of current scientific investigations of the impact of greenhouse gases on climate and society. The report is notable both for the research it documents and its influence on the public awareness of the issue.



America's Electric Utilities: Past, Present, and Future

Harry M. Trebing

Year: 1985
Volume: Volume 6
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol6-No3-19
View Abstract

Abstract:
In recent years, the greenhouse problem has aroused widespread public concern. Changing Climate, a report by the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) (1983), represents a useful and timely synthesis of current scientific investigations of the impact of greenhouse gases on climate and society. The report is notable both for the research it documents and its influence on the public awareness of the issue.



The Politics of Middle Eastern Oil

Dankwart A. Rustow

Year: 1985
Volume: Volume 6
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol6-No3-21
View Abstract

Abstract:
In recent years, the greenhouse problem has aroused widespread public concern. Changing Climate, a report by the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) (1983), represents a useful and timely synthesis of current scientific investigations of the impact of greenhouse gases on climate and society. The report is notable both for the research it documents and its influence on the public awareness of the issue.



Reforming the Regulation of Electric Utilities

Lester P. Taylor

Year: 1985
Volume: Volume 6
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol6-No3-22
View Abstract

Abstract:
In recent years, the greenhouse problem has aroused widespread public concern. Changing Climate, a report by the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) (1983), represents a useful and timely synthesis of current scientific investigations of the impact of greenhouse gases on climate and society. The report is notable both for the research it documents and its influence on the public awareness of the issue.



Markets for Power: An Analysis for Electric Utility Deregulation

Milton Z. Kafoglis

Year: 1985
Volume: Volume 6
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol6-No3-20
View Abstract

Abstract:
In recent years, the greenhouse problem has aroused widespread public concern. Changing Climate, a report by the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) (1983), represents a useful and timely synthesis of current scientific investigations of the impact of greenhouse gases on climate and society. The report is notable both for the research it documents and its influence on the public awareness of the issue.



Energy Today and Tomorrow

William A. Vogely

Year: 1985
Volume: Volume 6
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol6-No3-23
View Abstract

Abstract:
In recent years, the greenhouse problem has aroused widespread public concern. Changing Climate, a report by the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) (1983), represents a useful and timely synthesis of current scientific investigations of the impact of greenhouse gases on climate and society. The report is notable both for the research it documents and its influence on the public awareness of the issue.



Modeling Energy Demand: The Choice Between Input and Output Energy Measures

E. R. Berndt and G. C. Watkins

Year: 1986
Volume: Volume 7
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol7-No2-5
View Abstract

Abstract:
Analysis of factors affecting various types of energy demand has been the focus of a large number of studies in the last decade. One common point of agreement is that the demand for any fuel is tied closely to the technical, engineering, and thermodynamic characteristics of the energy-using capital or appliance stock.



Energy Demand Modeling with Noisy Input-Output Variables

Lov Kumar Kher, Fereidoon P. Sioshansi, and Soroosh Sorooshian

Year: 1987
Volume: Volume 8
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol8-No4-4
View Abstract

Abstract:
One of the most important challenges facing energy analysts is to predict future energy consumption levels. The volatility of energy prices following the 1973 oil embargo and the unexpected elasticity of demand to higher prices caught most energy forecasters off the mark (see Energy Daily, "How It Didn't Turn Out: The Forecasters Who Failed," 1986). The same can be said of electricity forecasters who consistently overshot growth rates for over a decade despite compelling signs to lower their projections (Uhler and Nelson, 1985), (see Figure 1).



Modeling Energy Demand and Socioeconomic Development Of Taiwan

Gwo-Hshiung Tzeng

Year: 1989
Volume: Volume 10
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol10-No2-9
View Abstract

Abstract:
Taiwan lacks a natural energy endowment. Its energy demands have dramatically increased with the growth of the economy and standard of living during the past two decades. Based on the new socioeconomic developmentpolicy for the next two decades, the government of Taiwan has devoted special attention and effort to improving various social and environmental problems affecting the country's overall quality of life. The increasing rate of household energy demand will slow down as the market for electrical appliances reaches a saturation point and as the energy efficiency of appliances is improved. Transportation policies call for energy conservation during the next two decades by raising energy use efficiency. The industrial sector has also implemented energy conservation measures by raising energy efficiency and by diagnosing and improving energy-use.



Introduction: Facts and Uncertainties

Loren C. Cox

Year: 1991
Volume: Volume 12
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol12-No1-1
View Abstract

Abstract:
The unusually hot summer and drought in 1988 in parts of North America stimulated wide discussions about the cause of these events. While most scientists now studying climate believe that the 1988 events were short-run phenomenon, some scientists and many policy makers in the U.S. Congress and Administration suggest that this weather was linked to global warming caused by a build-up of the so-called greenhouse gases: carbon dioxide, nitrogen oxides, methane and chlorofluorocarbons.



Methodological Advances in Energy Modelling: 1970-1990

James M. Griffin

Year: 1993
Volume: Volume 14
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol14-No1-5
View Abstract

Abstract:
Both the theory and practice of energy modelling have made phenomenal advances over the last 20 years. After providing a brief description of the state of energy modelling circa 1970, this paper identifies four major methodological advances profoundly affecting energy modelling. In the area of energy demand modelling, the translog and other generalized functional forms have proven readily adaptable to questions of interfuel substitution and energy/non-energy substitution. Additionally, discrete choice models, particularly the multinomial logit models, have provided a conceptually appealing framework within which to model appliance choice. The third advance has come in both the frequency and sophistication of use of panel data sets, which offer a much richer set of price and income variation. Finally, in the area of energy supply modelling, dynamic optimization models coupled with greater reliance on engineering information has lead to steady improvements in this area.




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