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Simulation of World Oil Market Shocks: A Markov Analysis of OPEC and Consumer Behavior

Richard F. Kosobud and Houston H. Stokes

Year: 1980
Volume: Volume 1
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol1-No2-3
View Abstract

Abstract:
One major determinant of crude oil price will be the question of whether or not OPEC can resolve its internal conflicts and act effectively as a coalition in restricting the quantities it will supply. For the economist, this question stands at the center of the energy problem; unfortunately, economic analysis has little that is definite to say about the question, and consequently little to say about how OPEC determines its posted price policies and the quantities of oil to be placed on the market. Economic analysis has also failed to provide any definite explanation of the fact that individual OPEC members have not been prone to seek net revenue increases through additional sales, even during periods of declining sales or during oil gluts such as the 1975 recession in OECD countries.



Industrial and Commercial Demand for Electricity by Time-of-Day: A California Case Study

Chinbang Chung, Dennis J. Aigner

Year: 1981
Volume: Volume 2
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol2-No3-7
View Abstract

Abstract:
Recently there has been much interest in time-of-use (TOU) pricing structures for electric utilities. TOU pricing reflects more closely than conventional pricing the cost components of supplying electricity, which vary over the course of a single day as well as over days of the week and seasons of the year. Although such pricing structures have long been used in Europe, they did not receive much attention in the United States prior to 1974.



The Potential Role of Natural Gas in a Major Oil Crisis

Benjamin Schlesinger, Nelson E. Hay, and Jacquelyn S. Mitchell

Year: 1982
Volume: Volume 3
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol3-No2-6
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Abstract:
Most energy experts in the federal government involved with contingency planning concern themselves with what to do when or if "the balloon goes up"; i.e., after the nation's 6-million-barrel-per-day oil supply is substantially cut off.



Response of Industrial and Commercial Customers to Time-of-Use Rates

James J. Brzycki and Arlyn C. Frederick

Year: 1982
Volume: Volume 3
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol3-No2-10
View Abstract

Abstract:
In their article "Industrial and Commercial Demand for Electricity by Time of Day: A California Case Study," Chinbang Chung and Dennis J. Aigner present an econometric model of industrial demand for electricity by time of day and attempt to estimate relevant price elasticities.



An Analysis of Commercial and Industrial Customer Response to Time-of-Use Rates

Joseph G. Hirschberg and Dennis J. Aigner

Year: 1983
Volume: Volume 4
Number: Special Issue
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol4-NoSI-7
No Abstract



Distributed Lags and the Demand for Electricity

Ronald J. Sutherland

Year: 1983
Volume: Volume 4
Number: Special Issue
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol4-NoSI-9
No Abstract



Effectiveness of Building Energy Performance Standards to Curtail Household Energy Demand: A Theoretical Analysis

Vijay K. Mathur

Year: 1984
Volume: Volume 5
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol5-No1-6
View Abstract

Abstract:
The Congress of the United States enacted the Energy Conservation and Production Act in 1976. It was amended in 1977. Title III of this act is designed to implement policies to curtail energy demand associated with new buildings; Title IV is aimed at establishing policies to encourage energy conservation in existing buildings. The main purposes of both Titles are to curtail energy consumption on the part of households as well as commercial buildings. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the effectiveness of various policies, which may be followed by the government under this Act, for curtailing the energy use by the households. Although no comprehensive energy policy to meet this goal has yet been formulated, the purpose of the Act gives a clear indication about the type of policy that could eventually emerge. My intention is not only to examine the effectiveness of the policy or policies emerging from the above Titles, but also to compare them with alternate, albeit traditional, policies of pricing, taxes, and subsidies aimed to reduce energy demand.



Summer Time and Electricity Conservation: The Israeli Case

Haim Shore

Year: 1984
Volume: Volume 5
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol5-No2-4
View Abstract

Abstract:
Summer Time (ST) refers to the practice of advancing the clock during the summer (commonly by one hour) in order to adjust it to changes of sunrise and sunset times at that period. Conventionally, ST is expected to accomplish three objectives: To reduce electricity consumption during dark evening hours.To reduce use of air conditioning systems during the morning. This effect,the result of an additional cool hour, is partially offset by an increasedconsumption of electricity for lighting during very early morning hours. To increase productivity (particularly in the industrial sectors that are notair-conditioned) following an additional cool hour in the morning.



Industrial and Commercial Demand for Electricity by Time of Day

Derek Bosworth and Clive Pugh

Year: 1985
Volume: Volume 6
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol6-No3-8
View Abstract

Abstract:
The initial stimulus for this note came from Chung and Aigner (1981), which examined the impact of a major change in electricity tariff structure on industrial and commercial electricity demands. Using a translog cost function the authors investigate the effects on consumption of a change in the pricing practices of the Pacific Gas and Electricity Corporation (PGEC). Instead of charging a uniform price for electricity throughout the 24-hour period, PGEC switched to a "time of use" (TOU) pricing regime. The model performed well for 10 of the 13 industry groups over the 41-month period, and indicated a considerable variation across industries in the impact of TOU pricing. The authors find a general pattern of moderate response to TOU pricing in the peak period and some substitution among electricity demands over other times of the day. The industries that showed the most elastic demands were logging camps, paper mills, industrial gases, and cement manufacturers (as well as shopping centers and educational institutions in the nonmanufacturing sector). The limited available evidence suggests that a similar diversity of responses exists across industries in other countries (Mitchell, Manning, and Acton 1978, pp. 89-120).



Demand for Electricity of Small Nonresidential Customers under Time-Of-Use (TOU) Pricing

Chi-Keung Woo

Year: 1985
Volume: Volume 6
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol6-No4-9
View Abstract

Abstract:
After the oil crisis of 1973, the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) in 1976 ordered Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PGandE) to charge its large nonresidential customers with monthly billing demand of over 4000 kilowatts (kW) mandatory time-of-use rates. Using a translog (TLOG) specification attributable to Christensen, Jorgenson, and Lau (1973), Chung and Aigner (1981) estimate the electricity demand price elasticities by time-of-use for 64 of these customers in 13 Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) code groups. Own-price elasticity estimates are generally around -0.1 and at times can be as high as -0.5, or they have the wrong sign. Cross-price elasticity estimates indicate that electricity usages by time-of-use are mostly substitutes. However, the estimated price responsiveness typically is larger than observed usages (see below and the section, Experimental Design and Data). Moreover, positive own-price elasticity estimates, though not statistically significant, raise further doubts about the validity of empirical results.




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