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The Gulf Crisis: Oil Fundamentals, Market Perceptions and Political Realities

Ahmad Zaki Yamani

Year: 1991
Volume: Volume 12
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol12-No2-1
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Abstract:
The oil market has certainly not disappointed those who might have feared that it had lost its ability to shock. The dramatic events in the Gulf in August 1990 resulted in the oil price more than doubling within two months, reaching -- at over $40 a barrel -- levels not seen since November 1980. This is a faster rise than that observed during the height of the Iranian crisis, when the price of oil took seven months to double. Once again political events in the turbulent Middle East managed to generate huge shock waves in the oil industry and to toss much else besides into dizzy confusion. Of course, the governments of many oil-producing states and a number of oil companies may feel euphoric about the price-driven surge in their incomes. However, price rises of this rapidity and magnitude are bound to make any jubilation turn sour, if past experience is anything to go by -- and these days the turn-around will happen sooner rather than later.



The Impact of an Oil Market Disruption on the Price of Oil: A Sensitivity Analysis

William L. Helkie

Year: 1991
Volume: Volume 12
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol12-No4-7
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Abstract:
This paper provides a quantitative analysis of the change in the price of oil due to an exogenous change in the supply of oil. It first outlines the role of oil in large-scale econometric models and reviews the theory upon which the oil/energy sectors in these models are based. It then presents a small reduced form of the large-scale econometric model and discusses the model's key parameters. The model is solved in order to determine the price of oil in the event of an oil supply disruption. The paper then discusses the sensitivity of the price effects of an oil market disruption to changes in the model's parameters and compares this range of price estimates to the three major supply disruptions of the past two decades.



Impacts of the Gulf War and Changes in Eastern Europe

Jean H. Masseron

Year: 1992
Volume: Volume 13
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol13-No3-1
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