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Interpreting the International Energy Workshop Survey Results - Uncertainty and the Need for Consistent Modeling

Gary W. Yohe

Year: 1984
Volume: Volume 5
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol5-No4-7
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Abstract:
Manne and Schrattenholzer's (1984) summary report of the poll responses of the 1983 International Energy Workshop (IEW) published in this Journal certainly captures the flavor of the Laxenburg meetings. Opinion about the future trends in energy consumption, prices, gross domestic product, and so on, at world, regional, and national levels was widely divergent even for the near term. In fact, it was noted with some amusement (and some dismay) that it seemed impossible to agree about what had already happened in 1980. Manne and Schrattenholzer accurately advertise the spreads they report as just what they are- differences of opinion. Nevertheless, even the statistically trained reader may be tempted to interpret these spreads as reflections of the uncertainty with which we view the world's energy future. One point of this Note is to provide independent emphasis that this uncertainty interpretation is, unless we are extremely lucky, entirely inappropriate. The second purpose is to register several other concerns about the lack of economic consistency in much of the modeling with which respondents to the JEW prepared their reports. Inconsistency, it will be argued, can undermine not only the usefulness of surveys like the one conducted by the IEW, but also the ability of any appropriate procedure to investigate the subjective uncertainty that blurs our best vision into the future.



Urbanization and Energy Use In Economic Development

Donald W. Jones

Year: 1989
Volume: Volume 10
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol10-No4-3
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Abstract:
Urbanization and industrialization are the most prom inentfeatures of economic development. The energy use changes brought by industrialization are well known, but urbanization also imposes major, if subtle, changes in energy use. Urbanization shifts production activities formerly undertaken in the home with little or no energy to outside producers who do use energy. One of the largest changes is the daily travel of urban residents, primarily but not exclusively, to work Personal transportation in rural areas generally entails little or no fuel use, while urban transportation does, particularly as incomes increase. Higher density living also induces substitutions of modern for traditional energy forms. Finally, food must be transported longer distances to urban consumers than to rural, agricultural consumers.



Growth and Welfare Losses from Carbon Emissions Restrictions: A General Equilibrium Analysis for Egypt

Charles Blitzer, Richard Eckaus, Supriya Lahiri, and Alexander Meeraus

Year: 1993
Volume: Volume 14
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol14-No1-3
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Abstract:
This paper assesses the economic effects of carbon emission restrictions in Egypt.Like other studies, it is an exemplification of some of the economic possibilitiesunder various conditions. However, it extends the domain of possibilities andsuggests some issues that have not been considered in other studies.It is demonstrated clearly that, while annual emissions constraints have only a modest effect on long-run economic growth rates, they have substantial effect on the achieved levels of GDP and welfare. These results do not change much, even with backstop and unconventional technologies or change in discounting. However, postponing the imposition of constraints does have a significant effect, as does changing the form of the constraints to one based on accumulated emissions.



Are There Useful Lessons from the 1990-91Oil Price Shock?

John A. Tatom

Year: 1993
Volume: Volume14
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol14-No4-9
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Abstract:
Following Iraqs invasion of Kuwait, oil prices temporarily doubled. This paper examines the hypothesis that the U.S. economy had changed following previous oil price shocks, so that the 1990 oil price rise (and its subsequent decline) had smaller effects than previously. It also examines a related hypothesis that such a transitory oil price hike would have little or no macroeconomic effect. It surveys and rejects arguments for a reduced impact of oil price shocks and for hysteresis. The article argues that recent experience was comparable in magnitude to earlier shocks and that there were comparable macroeconomic developments and changes in the composition of output. The paper concludes with a test of the effect of energy prices on the misery index and shows that recent changes in misery are consistent with previous experience.



Gasoline Demand in Developing Asian Countries

Robert McRae

Year: 1994
Volume: Volume15
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol15-No1-9
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Abstract:
This paper presents econometric estimates of motor gasoline demand in eleven developing countries of Asia. The price and GDP per capita elasticities are estimated for each country separately, and for several pooled combinations of the countries. The estimated elasticities for the Asian countries are compared with those of the OECD countries. Generally, one finds that the OECD countries have GDP elasticities that are smaller, and price elasticities that are larger (in absolute value). The price elasticities for the low-income Asian countries are more inelastic than for the middle-income Asian countries, and the GDP elasticities are generally more elastic.



Fairness Measures and Importance Weights for Allocating Quotas to OPEC Member Countries

Ahmad Saleh Alsalem, Subhash C. Sharma and Marvin D. Troutt

Year: 1997
Volume: Volume18
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol18-No2-1
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Abstract:
This study considers what we call the "degree of optimality" of quota assignments for each OPEC member country based on certain proposed fairness "factors. We argue that these factors should ideally be based on energy and economic conditions that ought to be taken into consideration when production quotas are assigned. Thus, in this study, importance weights based on proven reserves, available productive capacity, GDP per capita and domestic investment needs are first obtained for allocating fair quotas to each member country in the period 1982-1990. Then a degree of fairness optimality index is computed for each member country and is applied to measure the performance of these countries during the quota system period. Our investigations reveal that OPEC appears to give greater importance to the energy factors, proved reserves and productive capacity, although domestic investment needs seem to play a significant role in determining the direction of quota assignments. Statistical tests reveal that all the weights are consistent over time. Finally, we observe that the member countries whose ideal quotas are based on low GDP per capita have higher degrees of optimality than those whose ideal quotas are based on proven reserves or available productive capacity. The computed importance weights and optimality measures can be used both by OPEC and energy analysts interested in OPEC behavior.



A Thousand Years of Energy Use in the United Kingdom

Roger Fouquet and Peter J. G. Pearson

Year: 1998
Volume: Volume19
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol19-No4-1
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Abstract:
This paper examines the evolution of energy use and its influences in the United Kingdom over the very long run by combining economic literature and statistical information. The paper argues that the provision of energy services, mainly heat and power, is bound by the tensions between a changing growth rate and structure of economic activity and the constraints of energetic resources. After periods of tension, energy price differentials, as well as the diffusion of technological innovation and the development of new fuels, led to new mixes of energy sources to supply heat and power. This paper identifies three major changes that characterise the history of UK energy use: first, the dramatic increase in per capita energy use; second, the shift in methods of supplying energy services, from biomass sources to fossil fuels, from coal to petroleum to natural gas, and from raw forms to more value-added energy sources; and, third, the replacing of direct methods of generating power, from animate sources, wind and water, by the use of mechanical and electrical methods, which have so far depended mainly on fossil fuels. These changes were instrumental in influencing the relationship between GDP and energy use, and also the levels of environmentalpollution.



The Relationship Between Energy Intensity and Income Levels: Forecasting Long Term Energy Demand in Asian Emerging Countries

Rossana Galli

Year: 1998
Volume: Volume19
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol19-No4-4
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Abstract:
This paper analyses long-term trends in energy intensity for ten Asian emerging countries to test for a non-monotonic relationship between energy intensity and income in our sample. We estimate energy demand functions during 1973 1990 using a quadratic function of log income. We find that the long-run coefficient on squared income is negative and significant, indicating a change in trend of energy intensity. We then use our estimates to evaluate a medium-term forecast of energy demand in the Asian countries, using both a log-linear and a quadratic model. We find that in medium to high income countries the quadratic model performs better than the log-linear, with an average error of 9% against 43% in 1995. For the region as a whole, the quadratic model appears more adequate with a forecast error of 16% against 28% in 1995. These results are consistent with a process of dematerialization, which occurs as a result of a reduction of resource use per unit of GDP once an economy passes some threshold level of GDP per capita.



The Economic Implications of Reducing Carbon Emissions

Adrian Cooper, Scott Livermore, Vanessa Rossi, Alan Wilson and John Walker

Year: 1999
Volume: Volume 20
Number: Special Issue - The Cost of the Kyoto Protocol: A Multi-Model Evaluation
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol20-NoSI-13
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Abstract:
This paper presents the results of a series of simulations analysing the implications of measures to reduce carbon emissions in Annex 1 countries, conducted using the Oxford Global Macroeconomic and Energy Model. It shows that the GDP costs of reducing carbon emissions vary significantly across countries and that the cost depends on a number of critical factors including energy intensity, the rise in emissions in the base case and the amount of coal used especially in electricity generation. Moreover, it illustrates that a combination of macroeconomic rigidities and monetary policy responses to higher energy prices means that the output losses are likely to be substantial in the years immediately following the introduction of a carbon tax or similar emissions abatement policy.



Economic Development and the Structure of the Demand for Commercial Energy

Ruth A. Judson, Richard Schmalensee, and Thomas M. Stoker

Year: 1999
Volume: Volume20
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol20-No2-2
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Abstract:
To deepen understanding of the relation between economic development and energy demand, this study estimates the relations between per-capita GDP5 and per-capita energy consumption in major economic sectors. Panel data covering up to 123 nations are employed, and measurement problems are treated both in dataset construction and in estimation. Time and country fixed effects are assumed, and flexible forms for income effects are employed. There are substantial differences among sectors in the structure of country, time, and income effects. In particular, the household sector's share of aggregate energy consumption tends to fall with income, the share of transportation tends to rise, and the share of industry follows an inverse-U pattern.




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