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Risk-Bearing and the Choice of Contract Forms for Oil Exploration and Development

Charles R. Blitzer, Donald R. Lessard, and James L. Paddock

Year: 1984
Volume: Volume 5
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol5-No1-1
View Abstract

Abstract:
The structure of taxes and fiscal contracts between host countries and foreign companies has major implications for the success of oil development projects. This is because of several key characteristics of such projects: large investment outlays, long lead times to project completion, and long periods of project output and payout. These characteristics usually are coupled with an incomplete sharing of information and technology, and significant differences in the ability of the various parties to bear the risks involved. These characteristics often lead to unstable contracts and, in many cases, to the failure to develop projects that are economically attractive in aggregate terms but unattractive to one or both parties because of uncertainties over sharing project risks and returns.



Notes - Sense and Nonsense About World Oil

M. A. Adelman

Year: 1984
Volume: Volume 5
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol5-No1-13
No Abstract



Notes - A Comparison of the Costs and the Results in the On/Offshore Search for Oil and Gas

Jon A. Rasmussen and Michael J. Piette

Year: 1984
Volume: Volume 5
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol5-No1-11
No Abstract



Notes - Public Willingness to Invest in Household Weatherization

Marvin E. Olsen and Christopher Cluett

Year: 1984
Volume: Volume 5
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol5-No1-12
No Abstract







A Note on Petroleum Industry Exploration Efficiency

E. D. Attanasi

Year: 1984
Volume: Volume 5
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol5-No3-9
View Abstract

Abstract:
The concern over natural resource adequacy has led to the development of new theoretical models designed to predict behavior of firms exploring for and exploiting nonrenewable natural resources. However, advances in the theory of the mining firm have generally outpaced our ability to describe the exploration and discovery process empirically. An important topic is the industry's technical exploration efficiency-that is, how much exploration effort is needed to identify the fields with lowest unit production costs, so that extraction can proceed from the lowest to higher-cost resources.



An Analysis of Fiscal and Financial Impediments to Oil and Gas Exploration in Developing Countries

Charles R. Blitzer, Panos E. Cavoulacos, Donald R. Lessard, and James L. Paddock

Year: 1985
Volume: Volume 6
Number: Special Issue
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol6-NoSI-6
No Abstract



Exploration Risks and Mineral Taxation: How Fiscal Regimes Affect Exploration Incentives

T. R. Stauffer and John C. Gault

Year: 1985
Volume: Volume 6
Number: Special Issue
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol6-NoSI-10
No Abstract



OCS Leasing Policy: Its Effects on the Structure of the Petroleum Industry

Mark Kosrno

Year: 1985
Volume: Volume 6
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol6-No1-8
View Abstract

Abstract:
The disposition of offshore lands is one of the decade's most im-portant and controversial natural resource policy issues. Several disputes focus on the economic effects of federal Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) leasing policy. This paper addresses one of these disputes-how will OCSleasing policy affect the structure of the petroleum industry?This paper presents and summarizes an econometric model that evaluates the competitive implications of alternative OCS leasing policies.Specifically, it seeks to explain the differential bidding success of the major, minor, and independent oil companies.1 The following determinantsof OCS access were evaluated.



The Cost of OCS Bid Rejection

Paul R. Kobrin

Year: 1986
Volume: Volume 7
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol7-No1-6
View Abstract

Abstract:
The U.S. Interior Department periodically offers Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) tracts for lease at seated bid auction. The bid variable typically is the bonus, a sum paid by the lessee at commencement of the lease. A tract is awarded only to the high bidder. However, the seller often deems even the high bid insufficient, rejecting it and withholding the tract for possible laterauction.



North American Natural Gas Markets: Summary of an Energy Modeling Forum Study

Hillard G. Huntington and Glen E. Schuler, Jr.

Year: 1990
Volume: Volume 11
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol11-No2-1
View Abstract

Abstract:
This paper summarizes the research by the Ninth Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) working group which focused on the evolution of the North American natural gas market through 2010.1 The group analyzed four standardized scenarios: upper and lower oil price paths, the low U.S. natural gas resource base, and high U.S. natural gas demand. The group sought to develop insights about the gas market's development under these scenarios by using economic models and additional analyses. Some of the most critical factors highlighted in the study, that will affect the usage and price of gas in the future, are the nature of the gas-oil substitution in the industrial and utility boiler market, which will depend on relative bumertip residual fuel oil to gas prices, the incremental costs of finding and producing additional gas supplies in the U.S. and Canada, and the amount of potential gas imports.



A Risk Analysis of Oil Development in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge

Stephen G. Powell

Year: 1991
Volume: Volume 12
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol12-No3-5
View Abstract

Abstract:
The Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) in Alaska is simultaneously the most promising onshore area for oil exploration and one of the wildest areas remaining in the USA. The conflict between the need to develop energy resources and the desire to preserve wild areas has led to a prolonged debate over the merits of programs to lease the region for oil exploration and development.



Predicting the Discoveries and Finding Costs of Natural Gas: the Example of the Scotian Shelf

M. Power and J. D. Fuller

Year: 1991
Volume: Volume 12
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol12-No3-6
View Abstract

Abstract:
Predicting the discovery rate and marginal finding costs of natural gas resources requires a well-documented and long statistical history. For partially explored basins, the statistical history is often inadequate. Attempts at avoiding the problem have been made using probabilistic modelling approaches. These are used to estimate the parent population of pools available for discovery and the probable discovery rate. The phenomenon of economic truncation, however, calls into question the precision and utility of such estimates. Furthermore, the exploration process is known to be biased toward larger pools, but no method of determining the extent of the bias has been discussed in the literature to date. To avoid these defciencies, this paper employs the pool size distribution estimates routinely produced by geologists to drive a probabilistic modelling framework taking explicit account of the physical laws of resource depletion. The methodology is discussed and applied to Canada's Scotian Shelf. In order to put the predicted costs for the Scotian Shelf in perspective, the results are then compared to forecasts for Alberta.




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