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Nuclear Power: Epilogue or Prologue?

Harold R. Denton

Year: 1983
Volume: Volume 4
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol4-No1-7
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Abstract:
Judging by the continuing stream of nuclear power plant cancellations and downward revisions of nuclear energy forecasts, there is nothing riskier than predicting the future of commercial nuclear power. U.S. Nuclear Regulation Commissioner John Ahearne (1981) likens the recent events affecting the nuclear power industry in the United States to a Greek tragedy. Others, particularly other nations, take a different view about the future.



The NERC Fan in Retrospect and Lessons for the Future

Charles R. Nelson, Stephen C. Peck, Robert G. Uhler

Year: 1989
Volume: Volume 10
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol10-No2-7
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Abstract:
Projections of the future demand for electricitypublished annually since 1974 by the North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC) have proved in retrospect to have been too high and the projected growth rate has been revised downward each year. Should forecasters have been able to do a better job of predicting the slowdown in electricity growth which has occurred since the early 1970s? The authors have attempted to provide partial answers to this question by comparing the published NERC projections with benchmark forecasts provided by simple models representing well-established techniques. The authors also discuss how modelers and planners can cope with uncertainty by using the techniques of decision analysis.





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