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Interpreting the International Energy Workshop Survey Results - Uncertainty and the Need for Consistent Modeling

Gary W. Yohe

Year: 1984
Volume: Volume 5
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol5-No4-7
View Abstract

Abstract:
Manne and Schrattenholzer's (1984) summary report of the poll responses of the 1983 International Energy Workshop (IEW) published in this Journal certainly captures the flavor of the Laxenburg meetings. Opinion about the future trends in energy consumption, prices, gross domestic product, and so on, at world, regional, and national levels was widely divergent even for the near term. In fact, it was noted with some amusement (and some dismay) that it seemed impossible to agree about what had already happened in 1980. Manne and Schrattenholzer accurately advertise the spreads they report as just what they are- differences of opinion. Nevertheless, even the statistically trained reader may be tempted to interpret these spreads as reflections of the uncertainty with which we view the world's energy future. One point of this Note is to provide independent emphasis that this uncertainty interpretation is, unless we are extremely lucky, entirely inappropriate. The second purpose is to register several other concerns about the lack of economic consistency in much of the modeling with which respondents to the JEW prepared their reports. Inconsistency, it will be argued, can undermine not only the usefulness of surveys like the one conducted by the IEW, but also the ability of any appropriate procedure to investigate the subjective uncertainty that blurs our best vision into the future.



Energy Consumption in Hungary: An Ex Post Analysis

Julia Kiraly and Laszlo Level

Year: 1985
Volume: Volume 6
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol6-No3-10
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Abstract:
This paper analyzes the causes of the recent stagnation of Hungary's gross energy consumption. Applying a dynamic method, we estimate the effect of three factors: reduced growth, structural adjustment, and energy conservation. After an explanation of the methodology and a description of the estimating procedures, we discuss our results and offer some conclusions. Individual equations are contained in the appendix.



Energy Pricing and Household Energy Consumption in India

Ramesh Bhatia

Year: 1988
Volume: Volume_9
Number: Special Issue 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol9-NoSI1-4
No Abstract



Output and Energy: An International Analysis

John R. Moroney

Year: 1989
Volume: Volume 10
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol10-No3-1
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Abstract:
This paper analyzes the relationship between GNP per capita and energy consumption per capita for 43 market economies during the years 1978, 1979, and 1980. Several functional forms are analyzed. Specification tests establish that a double logarithmic equation is preferable to all others. Statistical estimates further indicate a distinct pattern of diminishing real income response to greater per capita energy consumption. Advanced economies with relatively low-cost energy (Canada, Norway, the U.S.A.) exhibit practically identical per capita incomes as industrialized nations with higher-cost energy (Sweden, France, and the Federal Republic of Germany).



Energy Consumption and Real Income: A Panel Cointegration Multi-country Study

Roselyne Joyeux and Ronald D. Ripple

Year: 2011
Volume: Volume 32
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol32-No2-5
View Abstract

Abstract:
The direction of the causality between energy consumption and income is an important issue in the fields of energy economics, economic growth, and policies toward energy use. The seminal work on the relations between energy consumption and aggregate income is Kraft and Kraft (1978). An extensive literature has followed, but the array of findings provide anything but consensus on either the existence of relations or direction of causality between the variables. The work in this paper extends this research by analysing the cointegrating and causal relations between income and three energy consumption series based on panel data and the latest panel methodologies. These relations are analysed for the 30 OECD countries and 26 non-OECD countries. The results support a finding of causality flowing from income to energy consumption for developed and developing economies, alike.



The Causality between Energy Consumption and Economic Growth for China in a Time-varying Framework

Jin Zhang and David C. Broadstock

Year: 2016
Volume: Volume 37
Number: China Special Issue
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.37.SI1.jzha
View Abstract

Abstract:
Extending existing studies based on constant structure, we adopt a time-varying approach to study energy consumption and GDP causality for China in a context of industrialization and urbanization. We find that in light of structural change, China's energy consumption is trend-stationary and thus forms no cointegration with GDP. Further, the relationship between energy consumption and GDP is two-way causal and has been decreasing in strength over time. Finally, industrialization and urbanization, especially the former, have limited effects on energy consumption, suggesting the decreasing energy intensities in individual sectors, instead of structure shift between sectors, as the main reason for China's decreasing energy intensity over the years.



A Top-Down Economic Efficiency Analysis of U.S. Household Energy Consumption

J. Wesley Burnett and Jessica Madariaga

Year: 2018
Volume: Volume 39
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.39.4.jbur
View Abstract

Abstract:
This study analyzes the efficiency of household-level energy consumption using a rich microdata set of homes within the United States. We measure efficiency by extending a cost-minimization model that treats the total amount of energy services produced as latent or unobserved due to technological differences in household consumption. The empirical strategy consists of applying latent class modeling to cost frontier analysis, which helps to identify heterogeneous subsets of units that require the fewest energy resources. Our estimates of efficient units form an empirical cost frontier of best practices within each subset. In order to understand the determinants of household-level energy efficiency, we condition the cost frontier analysis on numerous physical, climate-related, and socio-economic characteristics of the household. We find that state-level energy building code regulations, on average, induce a one-to-four percent marginal increase in household energy consumption.



Climate Anomalies and Migration between Chinese Provinces: 1987–2015

M. R. Barassi, M. G. Ercolani, M. J. Herrerias, and Z. Jin

Year: 2018
Volume: Volume 39
Number: Special Issue 1
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.39.SI1.merc
View Abstract

Abstract:
Internal migration between Chinese provinces has increased substantially since the mid-1980s. Though it is generally agreed that this has been driven by economic factors, climatic factors might also have had a part to play. The challenge is to evaluate the impact of climatic factors on migration in the simultaneous presence of changing socio-economic influences. We resolve this challenge by carrying out a statistical multivariate regression analysis on bilateral migration rates between Chinese provinces. The analysis simultaneously includes climate change in the form of climate anomalies (temperature, precipitation, sunshine) and various socio-economic factors including energy consumption. To this end we have constructed a unique three-dimensional panel dataset (time, sending province, receiving province) with bilateral migration rates between 30 provinces for the period 1987-2015. Due to the distributional properties of the data and underlying theory we use a Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) estimator but include OLS estimates for comparison. The results suggest that increases in temperature and precipitation are significant migration push factors while increased sunshine discourages push migration. Provincial differentials in per capita energy consumption and Gross Regional Product (GRP) are also significant drivers of migration.



Aid, Growth, Remittances and Carbon Emissions in Nepal

Kishor Sharma, Badri Bhattarai, and Salma Ahmed

Year: 2019
Volume: Volume 40
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.40.1.ksha
View Abstract

Abstract:
Using historical data from Nepal - one of the largest recipients of aid among South Asian countries - this paper investigates the link between foreign aid, growth, remittances and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. The investigation of this issue is particularly important, as policy makers in the least developed countries are increasingly concerned about growing reliance on energy imports, particularly fossil fuels, and increasing CO2 emissions. Mounting energy consumption has not only made their economies vulnerable to environmental disasters and increased health costs, but also to external shocks due to frequent fluctuations in international market prices for petroleum products. Since available studies are largely based on cross-sectional data - which lump together countries with different characteristics - empirical evidence is contradictory. In-depth case studies of countries with different backgrounds would certainly provide better insights into the link between aid, growth, remittances and CO2 emissions, and contribute to ongoing policy dialogue. Our empirical results, based on an in-depth case study of Nepal, suggest that more foreign aid and remittances reduce CO2 emissions, whereas financial development and higher income increase CO2 emissions. These findings point to the importance of market mechanisms for regulating financial development and higher income to control CO2 emissions, without undermining competitiveness.



Energy Consumption in the French Residential Sector: How Much do Individual Preferences Matter?

Salomé Bakaloglou and Dorothée Charlier

Year: 2019
Volume: Volume 40
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.40.3.sbak
View Abstract

Abstract:
The aim of this research is to understand the impact of preference heterogeneity in explaining energy consumption in French homes. Using a discrete-continuous model and the conditional mixed-process estimator (CMP) enable us to address two potential endogeneities in residential energy consumption: energy prices and the choice of home energy characteristics. As a key contribution, we provide evidence that a preference for comfort over saving energy does have significant direct and indirect impacts on energy consumption (through the choice of dwelling), particularly for high-income households. Preferring comfort over economy or one additional degree of heating implies an average energy overconsumption of 10% and 7.8% respectively, up to 18% for high-income households. Our results strengthen the belief that household heterogeneity is an important factor in explaining energy consumption and could have meaningful implications for the design of public policy tools aimed at reducing energy consumption in the residential sector.




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