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Emission Pathways Towards a Low-Carbon Energy System for Europe: A Model-Based Analysis of Decarbonization Scenarios

Karlo Hainsch, Thorsten Burandt, Konstantin Löffler, Claudia Kemfert, Pao-Yu Oei, and Christian von Hirschhausen

Year: 2021
Volume: Volume 42
Number: Number 5
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.42.5.khai
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Abstract:
The aim of this paper is to showcase different decarbonization pathways for Europe with varying Carbon dioxide (CO2) constraints until 2050. The Global Energy System Model (GENeSYS-MOD) framework, a linear mathematical optimization model, is used to compute low-carbon scenarios for 17 European countries or regions. The sectors power, low- and high- temperature heating, and passenger and freight transportation are included, with the model endogenously constructing capacities in each period. Emission constraints differ between different scenarios and are either optimized endogenously by the model, or distributed on a per-capita basis, GDP-dependent, or based on current emissions. The results show a rapid phase-in of renewable energies, if a carbon budget in line with established international climate targets is chosen. It can be shown that the achievement of the 2° target can be met with low additional costs compared to the business as usual case, while reducing total emissions by more than 30%.



One Price Fits All? On Inefficient Siting Incentives for Wind Power Expansion in Germany under Uniform Pricing

Lukas Schmidt and Jonas Zinke

Year: 2023
Volume: Volume 44
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.44.4.lsch
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Abstract:
This paper evaluates investment incentives for wind power under two market designs: uniform and nodal pricing. An electricity system model is developed, that allows for investments in wind power capacities while carefully accounting for static transmission grid constraints. Wind power capacities are assumed to reach the same expansion target by 2030 under both market designs. The results show that the introduction of nodal prices leads to investments in wind power plants shifting to locations with lower wind yield. The amount of electricity fed into the grid from wind power plants, however, is higher under nodal pricing as curtailment is reduced by two-thirds. Furthermore, grid-optimal wind locations are shown to require higher direct subsidy payments but decrease yearly variable supply costs by 1.5% in 2030. Yet distributional effects present an obstacle to the introduction of a nodal pricing regime, with about 75% of German demand facing an increase in electricity costs of about 5%. To mitigate the distorted investment signals arising from uniform pricing regimes, restricting investments within grid expansion areas proves to be more promising than including latitude-dependent generator-component in the grid tariff design.





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