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Oil Production Policy and Economic Development in Mexico

Hossein Razavi

Year: 1985
Volume: Volume 6
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol6-No2-5
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Abstract:
The economics literature of the oil market is primarily concerned with the behavior of OPEC member countries, viewing the non-OPEC oil exporters as insignificant. Recently, however, oil exports by non-OPEC countries have expanded substantially, increasing the role these countries play in the oil market. Among these countries, Mexico is of special interest because it is the largest non-OPEC oil exporter, with huge petroleum resources; at the same time, it has an enormous requirement for foreign exchange.





A Thousand Years of Energy Use in the United Kingdom

Roger Fouquet and Peter J. G. Pearson

Year: 1998
Volume: Volume19
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol19-No4-1
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Abstract:
This paper examines the evolution of energy use and its influences in the United Kingdom over the very long run by combining economic literature and statistical information. The paper argues that the provision of energy services, mainly heat and power, is bound by the tensions between a changing growth rate and structure of economic activity and the constraints of energetic resources. After periods of tension, energy price differentials, as well as the diffusion of technological innovation and the development of new fuels, led to new mixes of energy sources to supply heat and power. This paper identifies three major changes that characterise the history of UK energy use: first, the dramatic increase in per capita energy use; second, the shift in methods of supplying energy services, from biomass sources to fossil fuels, from coal to petroleum to natural gas, and from raw forms to more value-added energy sources; and, third, the replacing of direct methods of generating power, from animate sources, wind and water, by the use of mechanical and electrical methods, which have so far depended mainly on fossil fuels. These changes were instrumental in influencing the relationship between GDP and energy use, and also the levels of environmentalpollution.



Economic Development and the Structure of the Demand for Commercial Energy

Ruth A. Judson, Richard Schmalensee, and Thomas M. Stoker

Year: 1999
Volume: Volume20
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol20-No2-2
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Abstract:
To deepen understanding of the relation between economic development and energy demand, this study estimates the relations between per-capita GDP5 and per-capita energy consumption in major economic sectors. Panel data covering up to 123 nations are employed, and measurement problems are treated both in dataset construction and in estimation. Time and country fixed effects are assumed, and flexible forms for income effects are employed. There are substantial differences among sectors in the structure of country, time, and income effects. In particular, the household sector's share of aggregate energy consumption tends to fall with income, the share of transportation tends to rise, and the share of industry follows an inverse-U pattern.



Economic Development and End-Use Energy Demand

Kenneth B. Medlock III, and Ronald Soligo

Year: 2001
Volume: Volume22
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol22-No2-4
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Abstract:
We examine the relationship between economic development and energy demand. The paper identifies the development patterns that characterize particular economic sectors, and analyzes the effect of sector-specific energy demand growth rates on the composition of final energy demand. We also examine some of the associated policy implications. Industrial energy demand increases most rapidly at the initial stages of development, but growth slows steadily throughout the industrialization process. Energy demand for transportation rises steadily, and takes the majority share of total energy use at the latter stages of development. Energy demand originating from the residential and commercial sector also increases to surpass industrial demand, but long term growth is not as pronounced as it is in the transport sector. These results have implications for the primary energy demand of an economy as it develops, and thus, for domestic energy security and global geopolitical relationships.



Energy and Economic Development: An Assessment of the State of Knowledge

Michael T. Toman and Barbora Jemelkova

Year: 2003
Volume: Volume24
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol24-No4-5
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Abstract:
In large part, the literature on energy and development focuses on how energy demand is driven by economic development and on how energy services can be improved for developing countries. In this paper we begin with a conceptual discussion to identify the channels through which increased availability of energy services might act as a "key" stimulus of economic development along different stages of the development process. We then examine some empirical work to see what evidence it might provide regarding the importance of the possible channels of influence. We do find some important illustrations of a disproportionate role for energy. However, that evidence also underscores the importance of energy development in concert with other forms of development. Moreover, the amount of relevant literature we found was fairly limited, and in many cases it was difficult to separate out various influences in the study to see how energy might be exerting a disproportionate role relative to other influences. This underscores our conclusion that more work is needed to understand the magnitude of its importance for economic development at an economy-wide level.



The Impact of Automobile Diffusion on the Income Elasticity of Motor Fuel Demand

Francois Lescaroux and Olivier Rech

Year: 2008
Volume: Volume 29
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol29-No1-3
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Abstract:
Prompted by the recent surge in light oil product consumption, this paper analyses the demand for non-commercial motor fuel and proposes a long-run forecasting model. In doing so, our aim is to be able to reproduce a few key stylized facts observed in secular evolutions of the motor fuel intensity of GDP and related notably to the derived nature of oil demand. Using a database covering 77 countries over the 1986-1998 period, we explain sequentially the stock of private vehicles per capita and fuel consumption per vehicle. The former is expressed as an S-shaped function of real per-capita income, which takes into account the dynamics specific to the dissemination of a durable good in a population. By explicitly considering the distinct phases of the development of the automobile market, our approach enables us to propose an explanation to the space-time variability in long-run income elasticities reported in the literature � especially its decline as per-capita income increases and the resulting gap between elasticities in emerging countries compared to developed countries. Our two-equation model also enables us to reproduce the bell shaped curve of the motor fuel intensity of GDP as a function of per-capita income, as well as the other principal properties of resource intensity-of-use linked to the process of dematerialization which, for any country, follows the industrialization period.



Energy and Economic Growth: The Stylized Facts

Zsuzsanna Csereklyei, M. d. Mar Rubio-Varas, and David I. Stern

Year: 2016
Volume: Volume 37
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.37.2.zcse
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Abstract:
We summarize what we know about energy and economic growth in a set of stylized facts. We combine analysis of a panel data set of 99 countries from 1971 to 2010 with analysis of some longer run historical data. Our key result is that over the last 40 years there has been a stable cross-sectional relationship between per capita energy use and income per capita with an elasticity of energy use with respect to income of less than unity. This implies that energy intensity has tended to decrease in countries that have become richer but not in others. We also find that over the last two centuries there has been convergence in energy intensity towards the current distribution, per capita energy use has tended to rise and energy quality to increase, and, though evidence is limited, the cost share of energy has declined.



Should Developing Countries Constrain Resource-Income Spending? A Quantitative Analysis of Oil Income in Uganda

John Hassler, Per Krusell, Abdulaziz B. Shifa, and Daniel Spiro

Year: 2017
Volume: Volume 38
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.38.1.jhas
View Abstract

Abstract:
A large increase in government spending following resource discoveries often entails political risks, inefficient investments and increased volatility. Setting up a sovereign wealth fund with a clear spending constraint may decrease these risks. On the other hand, in a capital scarce developing economy with limited access to international borrowing, such a spending constraint may lower welfare by reducing domestic capital accumulation and hindering consumption increases for the currently poor. These two contradicting considerations pose a dilemma for policy makers in deciding whether to set up a sovereign wealth fund with a spending constraint. Using Uganda's recent oil discovery as a case study, this paper presents a quantitative macroeconomic analysis and examines the potential loss of constraining spending through a sovereign wealth fund with a simple spending rule. We find that the loss is relatively low and unlikely to dominate the political risks associated with increased oil spending. Thus, such a spending constraint appears well warranted.



Revisiting the Income Elasticity of Energy Consumption: A Heterogeneous, Common Factor, Dynamic OECD & non-OECD Country Panel Analysis

Brantley Liddle and Hillard Huntington

Year: 2020
Volume: Volume 41
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.41.3.blid
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Abstract:
The current paper contributes to the literature on the relationship between economic development and energy demand by assembling a wide panel dataset of energy consumption and prices for 37 OECD and 41 non-OECD countries. The unbalanced data spans 1960-2016, with the full 56 years of data for 17 countries and all countries having at least 18 years. In addition, our dynamic panel estimates address nonstationarity, heterogeneity, and cross-sectional dependence. Most results suggest that the GDP elasticity is less than unity (e.g., 0.7) - i.e., energy intensity will fall with economic growth. Most evidence suggests that the GDP elasticity is similar for OECD and non-OECD countries, and for non-OECD countries, similar across income-bands. Also, there is no evidence that individual country elasticity estimates (for GDP or prices) vary systematically according to income. The price elasticity is larger (in absolute terms) for OECD than for non-OECD countries - indeed, it is typically insignificant for non-OECD countries.




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