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The Treatment of Intermediate Materialsin the Estimation of the Demand for Energy: The Case of U.S. Manufacturing, 1947-1971

Richard G. Anderson

Year: 1980
Volume: Volume 1
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol1-No4-5
View Abstract

Abstract:
Continuing increases in the price of energy have stimulated extensive research on energy demand and factor substitution in the U.S. economy. The manufacturing segment of the U.S. economy consumes approximately one-fourth of aggregate U.S. energy if measured by Btu consumption, and about 40 percent if measured by the Btu content of the fuel used for electric power generation (see Table 1). Hence, the manufacturing sector has been specifically targeted as a source of potential reductions in energy demand in the Energy Policy and Conservation Act of 1975,This paper was completed while the author was Assistant Professor of Economics at Michigan State University. Acknowledgment is given to Ernst Berndt, Robert Engle,Franklin Fisher. Jerry Hausman, James Johannes, Robert Pindyck, and Robert Rasche for helpful comments. The author retains responsibility for errors.



Aggregate Elasticity of Energy Demand

EMF 4 Working Group

Year: 1981
Volume: Volume 2
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol2-No2-3
View Abstract

Abstract:
The first EMF study, "Energy and the Economy," produced estimates of the aggregate elasticity of substitution for primary energy implicit in six models of energy and the economy.' In that study, the working group identified the importance of the aggregate elasticity and called for an examination of more detailed demand models. During its review of the study, the EMF Senior Advisory Panel cited the importance of a careful investigation of energy demand models to clarify estimates of the aggregate elasticity. The present study is a response to those suggestions.



Balancing Energy Supply and Demand: A Fifty-Year Global Perspective

Paul S. Basile

Year: 1981
Volume: Volume 2
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol2-No3-1
View Abstract

Abstract:
Over the next five decades, even with vigorous conservation measures in industrialized regions, increasing needs for liquid fuels throughout the world may exceed the capabilities of global energy supply systems. The "energy problem," viewed in a sufficiently long-term and global perspective, is not an energy problem, strictly speaking, but an oil problem, or more precisely, a liquid fuels problem.



Comment on "Balancing Energy Supply and Demand"

John Foster

Year: 1981
Volume: Volume 2
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol2-No3-3
View Abstract

Abstract:
While a number of energy studies assume a national or regional perspective, just a few attempt a global approach, and these are typically concerned with the implications for industrialized nations. More-over, very few published studies look at the long-term global scene as far ahead as even the year 2000 (e.g., WAES and Exxon's World Energy Outlook), and only one to my knowledge extends its perspective to 2020 (Conservation Commission of the World Energy Conferences, 1977). So the long-awaited IIASA report, (as summarized here by Paul Basile), represents a landmark.



An Analysis of Department of Energy Residential Appliance Efficiency Standards

Raymond S. Hartman & MIT Energy Laboratory

Year: 1981
Volume: Volume 2
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol2-No3-5
View Abstract

Abstract:
Over the past several years, the Department of Energy (DOE) and its predecessor agencies have initiated an array of policies aimed at limiting domestic consumption of fossil fuels. Several policy initiatives, aimed at residential fossil-based energy conservation, have included residential appliance efficiency standards, the commercialization of residential applications of solar photovoltaic (PV) installations and solar thermal appliances, and the implementation of energy performance standards for buildings. Each of these programs alone will reduce residential fossil fuel consumption. However, it remains unclear how they interact. In this article I examine how two programs may interact. In particular, I assess how well appliance efficiency standards will reduce fuel consumption and whether a standards program will conflict with or complement the DOE's PV commercialization efforts.



Industrial and Commercial Demand for Electricity by Time-of-Day: A California Case Study

Chinbang Chung, Dennis J. Aigner

Year: 1981
Volume: Volume 2
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol2-No3-7
View Abstract

Abstract:
Recently there has been much interest in time-of-use (TOU) pricing structures for electric utilities. TOU pricing reflects more closely than conventional pricing the cost components of supplying electricity, which vary over the course of a single day as well as over days of the week and seasons of the year. Although such pricing structures have long been used in Europe, they did not receive much attention in the United States prior to 1974.



The Impact of President Reagan's Sudden Decontrol of Petroleum Prices on Petroleum Consumption

Ali M. Reza

Year: 1981
Volume: Volume 2
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol2-No3-9
View Abstract

Abstract:
President Reagan lifted all petroleum price controls shortly after he took office. Previously, the Carter administration had scheduled these controls to be eliminated gradually, with complete decontrol occurring by October 1, 1981. It is of interest to determine the effect of the sudden decontrol on petroleum consumption; in order to measure this effect, the role played by price must be isolated.



The Dilemma of Economic Versus Statistical Models of Energy

J. Daniel Khazzoom

Year: 1981
Volume: Volume 2
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol2-No3-10
View Abstract

Abstract:
The recent surge of interest among energy planners in economic models' for predicting the energy outlook has coincided with a growing senseof disillusionment among many practicing econometricians about the forecasting performance of economic models (see, for example, Stekler, 1968).Many economists argue that the problem with economic models lies in the economic theories behind them. These theories analyze the impact of policy changes on the assumption that the structure will not change, when in fact what may happen is that the structure itself, and not just the variables ofinterest, may change as policy changes. What is needed is a theory that predicts how the structure will change in response to such policy changes.



Oil and Energy Demand in Developing Countries in 1990

Charles Wolf, Jr., Daniel A. Relles, Jaime Navarro

Year: 1981
Volume: Volume 2
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol2-No4-1
View Abstract

Abstract:
How much of the world's oil and energy supply will the non-OPEC less developed countries (NOLDCs) demand in the next decade? Will their requirements be small and thus fairly insignificant compared with world demand, or large and relatively important? How will world demand be affected by the economic growth of the NOLDCs?In the study on which this article is based, we try to develop some reasonable forecasts of NOLDC energy demands in the next 10 years.' Our focus is mainly on the demand for oil, but we also give some attention to the total commercial energy requirements of these countries. We have tried to be explicit about the uncertainties associated with our forecasts, and with the income and price elasticities on which they are based.



The Price Elasticity for Gasoline Revisited

Rolando F. Pelaez

Year: 1981
Volume: Volume 2
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol2-No4-6
View Abstract

Abstract:
Energy conservation has been a major goal of three administrations, yet disagreement about how to achieve it has hampered conservation efforts. Advocates of nonmarket rationing claim that gasoline demand is highly inelastic, and hence that higher prices would result mainly in substantial income redistribution. In contrast, economists typically point to the price mechanism as the best method for promoting conservation. Clearly the issue depends to a great degree on the price elasticity of demand for energy. Since nearly one-half of the petroleum consumed in the United States is used as motor fuel, this note focuses on the price elasticity for gasoline.




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