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Crude Oil Resource Appraisal in the United States

Noel D. Uri

Year: 1980
Volume: Volume 1
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol1-No3-3
View Abstract

Abstract:
Prior to the Arab oil embargo that began in October 1973, the general feeling was that U.S. oil resources were almost limitless. Certainly there were some who were aware that the rate of crude oil produc-tion was falling and costs were increasing, but these perceptions were relegated to the background. Past experience supported the explorer's optimistic outlook concerning potential discoveries. The United States never seemed in danger of being less than the world's foremost producer of crude oil.



An Assessment of the Effects of the Windfall Profits Tax on Crude Oil Supply

Philip K. Verleger, Jr.

Year: 1980
Volume: Volume 1
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol1-No4-3
View Abstract

Abstract:
Most economic assessments of the recently enacted crude oil "windfall profits tax" (P. L. 96-223) have concluded that the tax will reduce the economic incentive to produce crude oil and will therefore have a negative impact on U.S. oil production.' This article disagrees with that view. Instead we show that the tax offers incentives to producers on existing properties that exceed those offered by a free market. Furthermore, based on estimates of these incentives, we conclude that the tax will1. See, for instance, Mead (1979) Wall Street Journal (1980), and Friedman (1980).Support from grants to the program on business and government relations at the School of Organization and Management at Yale University is gratefully acknowledged. Extraordinary assistance from Edward Erickson and Linda Scotten in improving the exposition of this paper is also gratefully acknowledged. The author assumes full responsibility for any errors.



Risk Premiums and Efficiency in the Market for Crude Oil Futures

Richard Deaves and Itzhak Krinsky

Year: 1992
Volume: Volume 13
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol13-No2-5
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Abstract:
The New York Mercantile Exchange's Crude Oil futures contract is investigated for the existence and nature of risk premiums and informational efficiency. During 1983-90, there is some evidence that short-term premiums were positive and covaried with recent volatility. As for efficiency, we find nothing inconsistent with weak-form efficiency, but some apparent violations cf semi-strong efficiency. We argue that, for a number of reasons, such rejections should be interpreted with caution.



A Note on Saudi Arabian Price Discrimination

Ronald Soligo and Amy Myers Jaffe

Year: 2000
Volume: Volume21
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol21-No1-6
View Abstract

Abstract:
Despite the development of an international market for crude petroleum and the resulting opportunities for arbitrage, Saudi oil continues to be shipped to markets in the U.S. and Europe when closer markets are available. Furthermore, these Western sales take place at fob (Saudi Arabia) prices that are lower than for exports to customers in the Far East. This note explains these Saudi price and trade flow anomalies in terms of a model of constrained price discrimination in which the quality adjusted price differential between Asian and European prices cannot exceed the differential in tanker rates to the two markets. The conditions under which price discrimination is likely to continue are also explored. The focus is on the West European and Far East oil markets but the argument applies to the U.S. market as well. Implications of Saudi marketing practices for new oil producers such as those in Central Asia are also discussed.



Are Regional Oil Markets Growing Closer Together?: An Arbitrage Cost Approach

Andrew N. Kleit

Year: 2001
Volume: Volume22
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol22-No2-1
View Abstract

Abstract:
A large number of papers published in the last decade have attempted to show that energy markets have grown more integrated. These articles attempt to infer that various markets have become more "unified" because the correlation (in various forms) of prices between markets has increased during the last several years. This article suggests that a more appropriate modeling technique based on the theory of arbitrage as presented in Spiller and Wood (1988a and b), is better suited to answering this question. In this paper, the arbitrage technique is extended and applied to light crude oil markets in the 1990s. Arbitrage costs between markets are estimated. In addition, the hypothesis that crude oil markets have converged during this period is tested. Substantial though mixed support is gained for this hypothesis.



The Dynamics of Commodity Spot and Futures Markets: A Primer

Robert S. Pindyck

Year: 2001
Volume: Volume22
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol22-No3-1
No Abstract



Forecasting Nonlinear Crude Oil Futures Prices

Saeed Moshiri and Faezeh Foroutan

Year: 2006
Volume: Volume 27
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol27-No4-4
View Abstract

Abstract:
The movements in oil prices are very complex and, therefore, seem to be unpredictable. However, one of the main challenges facing econometric models is to forecast such seemingly unpredictable economic series. Traditional linear structural models have not been promising when used for oil price forecasting. Although linear and nonlinear time series models have performed much better in forecasting oil prices, there is still room for improvement. If the data generating process is nonlinear, applying linear models could result in large forecast errors. Model specification in nonlinear modeling, however, can be very case dependent and time-consuming.In this paper, we model and forecast daily crude oil futures prices from 1983 to 2003, listed in NYMEX, applying ARIMA and GARCH models. We then test for chaos using embedding dimension, BDS(L), Lyapunov exponent, and neural networks tests. Finally, we set up a nonlinear and flexible ANN model to forecast the series. Since the test results indicate that crude oil futures prices follow a complex nonlinear dynamic process, we expect that the ANN model will improve forecasting accuracy. A comparison of the results of the forecasts among different models confirms that this is indeed the case.



Threshold Cointegration Analysis of Crude Oil Benchmarks

Shawkat M. Hammoudeh, Bradley T. Ewing and Mark A. Thompson

Year: 2008
Volume: Volume 29
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol29-No4-4
View Abstract

Abstract:
The paper examines the dynamic relationship between pairs of four oil benchmark prices (i.e., West Texas Intermediate, Brent, Dubai, and Maya), which have different physical properties and locations. The results indicate that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship between different benchmarks, regardless of their properties and locations. More importantly, there is asymmetry in the adjustment process that is specifically modeled and implications are discussed.



Explaining Fluctuations in Gasoline Prices: A Joint Model of the Global Crude Oil Market and the U.S. Retail Gasoline Market

Lutz Kilian

Year: 2010
Volume: Volume 31
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol31-No2-4
View Abstract

Abstract:
The distinction between the price of gasoline in the U.S. and the price of crude oil in global markets is often ignored in discussions of the impact of higher energy prices. This article makes explicit the relationship between demand and supply shocks in these two markets. Building on a recently proposed structural VAR model of the global crude oil market, it explores the implications of a joint VAR model of the global market for crude oil and the U.S. market for motor gasoline. It is shown that it is essential to understand the origins of a given gasoline price shock, when assessing the responses of the price of gasoline and of gasoline consumption, since each demand and supply shock is associated with responses of different magnitude, pattern and persistence. The article assesses the overall importance of these shocks in explaining the variation in U.S. gasoline prices and consumption growth, as well as their relative contribution to the evolution of U.S. gasoline prices since 2002.



Oil and Petroleum Product Armington Elasticities: A New-Geography-of-Trade Approach to Estimation

Edward J. Balistreri, Ayed Al-Qahtani and Carol A. Dahl

Year: 2010
Volume: Volume 31
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol31-No3-9
View Abstract

Abstract:
Exploiting the structural developments suggested by the geography-of-trade literature, we estimate the elasticity of substitution across regional varieties for six crude grades and seven refined products using fixed-effects gravity regressions. We use unique data, compiled by Al-Qahtani (2008), that include global coverage of bilateral trade and transport costs for the crude grades and refined products. We find that the point estimates of elasticities of substitution across import varieties exceed those commonly reported in the literature and those adopted in simulation analysis. Our estimates indicate that there may be far less hysteresis in the pattern of petroleum trade than previously forecast.




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