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Regrets or No Regrets -- That is the Question: Is Conservation an Costless CO2 Mitigation Strategy?

Adam Rose and Shih-Mo Lin

Year: 1995
Volume: Volume16
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol16-No3-3
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Abstract:
Based on sectoral, or partial equilibrium, analyses, energy conservation has been offered as a "no regrets" CO2 mitigation strategy. Ours is the first study to isolate key features of conservation strategies in a general equilibrium context. The results indicate that conservation would have slightly negative! effects on the U.S. economy overall, in addition to sizable negative effects on most energy industries. Thus, while conservation may be a worthy CO2 mitigation strategy, it should not be oversold as costless.



Decarbonizing the Global Economy with Induced Technological Change: Scenarios to 2100 using E3MG

Terry Barker, Haoran Pan, Jonathan Kohler, Rachel Warren, and Sarah Winne

Year: 2006
Volume: Endogenous Technological Change
Number: Special Issue #1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-VolSI2006-NoSI1-12
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Abstract:
This paper reports how endogenous economic growth and technological change have been introduced into a global econometric model. It explains how further technological change might be induced by mitigation policies so as to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and stabilize atmospheric concentrations. These are the first results of a structural econometric approach to modeling the global economy using the model E3MG (energy-environment-economy model of the globe), which in turn constitutes one component in the Community Integrated Assessment System (CIAS) of the UK Tyndall Centre. The model is simplified to provide a post-Keynesian view of the long-run, with an indicator of technological progress affecting each region�s exports and energy use. When technological progress is endogenous in this way, long-run growth in global GDP is partly explained by the model. Average permit prices and tax rates about $430/tC (1995) prices after 2050 are sufficient to stabilize atmospheric concentrations at 450ppm CO2 after 2100. They also lead to higher economic growth.





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