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Induced Technological Change: Exploring its Implications for the Economics of Atmospheric Stabilization: Synthesis Report from the Innovation Modeling Comparison Project

Ottmar Edenhofer, Kai Lessmann, Claudia Kemfert, Michael Grubb and Jonathan Kohler 

Year: 2006
Volume: Endogenous Technological Change
Number: Special Issue #1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-VolSI2006-NoSI1-3
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Abstract:
This paper summarizes results from ten global economy-energy-environment models implementing mechanisms of endogenous technological change (ETC). Climate policy goals represented as different CO2 stabilization levels are imposed, and the contribution of induced technological change (ITC) to meeting the goals is assessed. Findings indicate that climate policy induces additional technological change, in some models substantially. Its effect is a reduction of abatement costs in all participating models. The majority of models calculate abatement costs below 1 percent of present value aggregate gross world product for the period 2000-2100. The models predict different dynamics for rising carbon costs, with some showing a decline in carbon costs towards the end of the century. There are a number of reasons for differences in results between models; however four major drivers of differences are identified. First, the extent of the necessary CO2 reduction which depends mainly on predicted baseline emissions, determines how much a model is challenged to comply with climate policy. Second, when climate policy can offset market distortions, some models show that not costs but benefits accrue from climate policy. Third, assumptions about long-term investment behavior, e.g. foresight of actors and number of available investment options, exert a major influence. Finally, whether and how options for carbon-free energy are implemented (backstop and end-of-the-pipe technologies) strongly affects both the mitigation strategy and the abatement costs.



Assessment of CO2 Reductions and Economic Impacts Considering Energy-Saving Investments

Toshihiko Masui, Tatsuya Hanaoka, Saeko Hikita, and Mikiko Kainuma

Year: 2006
Volume: Endogenous Technological Change
Number: Special Issue #1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-VolSI2006-NoSI1-8
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Abstract:
Using a global dynamic optimization model that includes a notion of endogenous energy-saving investments, economic impacts and energy-system changes are assessed under several policy cases where CO2 concentration is stabilized at the 450, 500, and 550 ppm levels by the year 2100. The effect of increased investments in energy-saving technologies on energy efficiency is derived exogenously from results of the AIM/Enduse model applied to Japan, then endogenized in the global dynamic optimization model.We find that with diffusion of energy-saving technologies, GDP loss during the 21st century falls from 2.5% to 2.1% in the 450 ppm case. The impact is small for the 550 ppm case, however, because a shift to low-carbon-intensive energies such as gas and renewable energies does not occur to a significant extent under this target.



Response to Extreme Energy Price Changes: Evidence from Ukraine

Anna Alberini, Olha Khymych, and Milan Šcasný

Year: 2019
Volume: Volume 40
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.40.1.aalb
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Abstract:
Large but temporary price increases are sometimes deployed on days when the demand for electricity is extremely high due to exceptionally warm or cold weather. But what happens when the extreme price changes are permanent? Between January 2013 and April 2016, natural gas and electricity prices in Ukraine increased dramatically (up to 300% of the initial rates). We exploit variation in tariffs over time and across customers to estimate the price elasticity of electricity demand using a panel dataset with monthly meter readings from households in Uzhhorod in Ukraine. The price elasticity of electricity demand is -0.2 to -0.5, with the bulk of our estimates around -0.3. The elasticity becomes up to 50% more pronounced over the first three months since prices change. We find only limited evidence that persons who are attentive about their consumption levels, their bills, or the tariffs are more responsive to the price changes.





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