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Uncertainty Analysis of the IEA/ORAU CO2 Emissions Model

J. M. Reilly, J. A. Edmonds, R. H. Gardner, and A. L. Brenkerf

Year: 1987
Volume: Volume 8
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol8-No3-1
View Abstract

Abstract:
Future levels of carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels are an important determinant of the severity and timing of global warming due to elevated levels of radiatively active (greenhouse) gases in the atmosphere. Many studies have addressed this issue,. These include Rotty (1977), Keeling and Bacastow (1977), Siegenthaler and Oeschger (1978), JASON (1979), Marchetti (1980), IIASA in Haefele (1981), Lovins (1981), Hamm (1982), Nordhaus and Yohe (1983), and Reister and Rotty (1983). Ausubel and Nordhaus (1983) provide a recent critical review of emissions forecasts with a focus on methodological development, citing the advance in methodological sophistication leading to improvements in understanding long-term patterns of energy use and their relationship to CO2 emissions.



Introduction: Facts and Uncertainties

Loren C. Cox

Year: 1991
Volume: Volume 12
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol12-No1-1
View Abstract

Abstract:
The unusually hot summer and drought in 1988 in parts of North America stimulated wide discussions about the cause of these events. While most scientists now studying climate believe that the 1988 events were short-run phenomenon, some scientists and many policy makers in the U.S. Congress and Administration suggest that this weather was linked to global warming caused by a build-up of the so-called greenhouse gases: carbon dioxide, nitrogen oxides, methane and chlorofluorocarbons.



Economic Activity and the Greenhouse Effect

Yoshiki Ogawa

Year: 1991
Volume: Volume 12
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol12-No1-3
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Abstract:
Global warming is recognized as one of the most important issues in international politics, although specialists are still uncertain about the role which various socio-economic factors play in global warming under a variety of conditions. Among the factors examined in this paper, the burning of fossil fuels bears the greatest responsibility for global CO2 emissions. Given the growth in emissions in the LDCs, global action to regulate emissions cannot be effective without their full participation and therefore north-south problems need to be addressed simultaneously, or before, the problem of global warming. The problem of global warming is becoming ever more urgent as energy demand has begun to increase again following the collapse of oil prices in 1986.



Productivity Trends and the Cost of Reducing CO2 Emissions

William W. Hogan and Dale W. Jorgenson

Year: 1991
Volume: Volume 12
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol12-No1-5
View Abstract

Abstract:
Adequate control of CO2 emissions may require a significant increase in energy price, which in turn wilt create long-term economic costs. This paper explores the effects of long-term productivity trends in the U.S. economy and relates them to the cost of reducing CO2 emissions. Technology change has been negatively correlated with energy prices and positively correlated with materials prices. Thus, if all prices remain constant expenditures on materials per unit of output will decline, and expenditures on energy per unity of output will increase. If energy prices increase, the rate of productivity growth will decrease. This trend will be very small, if measured on an annual basis, but eventually could be quite significant. A comparison with recent cost estimates of CO2 emission control suggests that this otherwise ignored productivity effect could be the largest component of a complete cost analysis.



Environmental Issues in the Future Development of the USSR Energy Systems

V. M. Yudin and O.K. Makarov

Year: 1991
Volume: Volume 12
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol12-No3-2
View Abstract

Abstract:
With today's scientific and technological breakthroughs, the wellbeing of any society is strongly dependent on the scale of its provision of energy resources and on the state of its environment. These issues, both currently and in the long run, have become the most urgent ones demanding a joint endeavour from all the countries on the globe.



Limits on the Economic Effectiveness of a Carbon Tax

Robert K Kaufmann

Year: 1991
Volume: Volume 12
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol12-No4-9
View Abstract

Abstract:
Much of the discussion regarding policies to reduce the emission of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases focuses on least-cost strategies. Policies that minimize costs are desirable because they are economically more efficient than policies that are based on a command and control strategy (Gasloms and Stram, 1990). Among the many least-cost policies now under consideration, a carbon tax has received the most attention. As currently envisioned, a carbon tax would be levied on users of fossil fuels according to the amount of carbon that is emitted when the fuel is burned. Because the combustion of coal emits more CO2 per heat unit than oil, which emits more CO2 per heat unit than natural gas, the tax on coal would be larger than the tax on oil, which would be larger than the tax on natural gas.The fuel specific charges that would be imposed by a carbon tax are a popular policy option because many believe that a carbon tax will reduce emissions of carbon dioxide in an economically efficient manner. That is, a carbon tax will reduce the use of fossil fuels by spurring technical change and by inducing the substitution of capital, labour, and non-energy materials. Furthermore, a carbon tax will reduce emissions of CO2 by inducing substitution of fuels that emit less CO2 per heat unit. The reduction in emissions that is achieved by interfuel substitution is caused by the differences in the size of the tax on coal, oil, and natural gas. Because the tax on coal is largest, the price of coal will rise relative to oil and natural gas and users will substitute oil or natural gas for coal.



CETA: A Model for Carbon Emissions Trajectory Assessment

Stephen C Peck and Thomas J. Teisberg

Year: 1992
Volume: Volume 13
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol13-No1-4
View Abstract

Abstract:
We present an economic growth and energy use model incorporating representations of greenhouse gas accumulation, global mean temperature rise, and the damage cost associated with this temperature rise. Under alternative assumptions about the damage cost function, we find optimal time paths of CO, emissions control and associated optimal carbon taxes. Our work indicates that with plausible assumptions, an optimal carbon tax will rise over time, in contrast to the "hump shaped" carbon taxes implied by C02 reduction policies currently being discussed. Our work also suggests that the damage cost function would have to be both high and nonlinear in order to justify the general level of CO2 control and carbon taxes implied by these policies.



Should Carbon Taxes Be Additional to Other Transport Fuel Taxes?

David M Newbery

Year: 1992
Volume: Volume 13
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol13-No2-3
View Abstract

Abstract:
If transport fuel is taxed as a method of charging for road use and congestion, then, as a first approximation, carbon taxes should be superimposed on the existing taxes and the final price of transport fuel should rise by somewhat more than the carbon tax. If transport fuels are already taxed, the cost of meeting the emissions target will depend sensitively on whether the reduction in CO2 emissions is a proportion from base levels or to a target level, depending on factors other than fuel consumption (GNP or population).



Prospects for Natural Gas in Western Europe

Peter R. Odell

Year: 1992
Volume: Volume 13
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol13-No3-3
No Abstract



Analysis of Unilateral CO2 Control in the European Community and OECD

John Pezzey

Year: 1992
Volume: Volume 13
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol13-No3-8
View Abstract

Abstract:
Whalley and Wigle (1991b) use a static, six-region, perfect competition, general equilibrium model to explore various global carbon tax policies designed to cut CO2 emissions. Their program is used here to model unilateral carbon taxes applied by large regions such as the EC or the OECD. Sample model results suggest that a 20% unilateral cut in EC carbon-based energy consumption achieves a 0.7% cut in world consumption in equilibrium; the ECs production of energy-intensive goods falls by 8.3%; but EC welfare is hardly changed, thanks to a shift in consumption towards nonenergy-intensive goods and to cheaper carbon-based energy imports. Unilateral action, even by large economies, therefore seems to be environmentally ineffective but economically neutral overall. However, international leadership effects or induced technical progress might change these conclusions. Also, Perroni and Rutherford (1991) find less extreme results for similar policies, probably because they model world energy markets very differently.




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