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CO2 Emission Limits: An Economic Cost Analysis for the USA

Alan S. Manne and Richard G. Richels

Year: 1990
Volume: Volume 11
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol11-No2-3
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Abstract:
This paper provides a cost-benefit analysis of controlling or decreasing C02 emissions. It uses an analytical framework, called Global 2100, which is designed to evaluated C02 energy economy interactions and estimate the cost of a carbon emissions limit. It analyzes three demand parameters (potential GNP growth, elasticity of price induced substitution between capital-labour and energy, and the rate of autonomous energy efficiency improvements) which are crucial to the debate over energy and environmental futures. The paper discusses various energy sources which are either presently in use or will possibly be in use in the future, and analyzes their impact on cost-benefit analyses. Finally, the paper analyzes the results of carbon constraints and suggests that there is need for more research and development on the subject.



Comments on Manne and Richels: "CO2 Emission Limits: An Economic Analysis for the USA"

William W. Hogan

Year: 1990
Volume: Volume 11
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol11-No2-4
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Abstract:
This paper evaluates the Global 2100 model application on global warming by A. S. Manne and R G. Richels, which is presented in this edition of The Energy Journal The paper discusses Manne and Richels's general analytical framework, the Global 2100 model; and Manne and Richels's exploration of international interdependence, benefit calculations, and the uncertainty which must necessarily accrue to any discussion of global warming. The paper suggests that cost-benefit analyses, such as the one provided by Manne and Richels, are necessary for policy recommendations. Differences in regional impacts of global warming are noted. The paper concludes that Manne and Richels's study is very worthwhile and pleads for further studies.



Low-Cost Strategies for Coping with CO2 Emission Limits (A Critique of "CO2 Emission Limits: an Economic Cost Analysis for the USA" by Alan Manne and Richard Richels)

Robert H. Williams

Year: 1990
Volume: Volume 11
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol11-No4-3
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Abstract:
Manne and Richels (Mann and Richels, 1990) have developed a useful modelling framework for evaluating the potential economic impacts of alternative strategies for coping with greenhouse warming. Their estimate is that the discounted present value of economic consumption losses arising from a 20% reduction in CO2 emissions through the next century is in the range of $0.8 to $3.6 trillion. This critique shows that the options for reducing CO2 emissions through energy demand reduction and energy supply shifts are much broader than those considered by Manne and Richels in the initial run of their model. The possibilities are so diverse with both present and future technologies, that the minimum CO2 emissions constraint penalty estimated by Mann and Richels may well prove to be too high - and the possibility of a negative penalty cannot be ruled out. Marine and Richels are correct in arguing that a vigorous R&D program is needed to keep economic consumption losses associated with constraints on CO2 emissions at low levels, and that waiting for clarification of the scientific issues relating to the greenhouse warning before launching such R&D efforts would be unwise, but the priorities for R&D implicit in the initial nun of their model are much too narrowly focused. As this analysis indicates, a much more broadly based energy R&D program is called for.



The Costs of Reducing U.S. CO2 Emissions - Further Sensitivity Analyses

Alan S. Mann and Richard G. Richels

Year: 1990
Volume: Volume 11
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol11-No4-4
View Abstract

Abstract:
In a previous paper, we used the Global 2100 model to explore the implications of a carbon constraint upon domestic energy costs and the resulting effects on the U.S. economy as a whole (Manne and Richels (1990). The impact of a CO2 limit will depend on the technologies and resources available for meeting demands as well as on the demands themselves. Given the enormous uncertainty surrounding these factors, losses were calculated under alternative assumptions about each.





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