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Uncertainty Analysis of the IEA/ORAU CO2 Emissions Model

J. M. Reilly, J. A. Edmonds, R. H. Gardner, and A. L. Brenkerf

Year: 1987
Volume: Volume 8
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol8-No3-1
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Abstract:
Future levels of carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels are an important determinant of the severity and timing of global warming due to elevated levels of radiatively active (greenhouse) gases in the atmosphere. Many studies have addressed this issue,. These include Rotty (1977), Keeling and Bacastow (1977), Siegenthaler and Oeschger (1978), JASON (1979), Marchetti (1980), IIASA in Haefele (1981), Lovins (1981), Hamm (1982), Nordhaus and Yohe (1983), and Reister and Rotty (1983). Ausubel and Nordhaus (1983) provide a recent critical review of emissions forecasts with a focus on methodological development, citing the advance in methodological sophistication leading to improvements in understanding long-term patterns of energy use and their relationship to CO2 emissions.



CO2 Emission Limits: An Economic Cost Analysis for the USA

Alan S. Manne and Richard G. Richels

Year: 1990
Volume: Volume 11
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol11-No2-3
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Abstract:
This paper provides a cost-benefit analysis of controlling or decreasing C02 emissions. It uses an analytical framework, called Global 2100, which is designed to evaluated C02 energy economy interactions and estimate the cost of a carbon emissions limit. It analyzes three demand parameters (potential GNP growth, elasticity of price induced substitution between capital-labour and energy, and the rate of autonomous energy efficiency improvements) which are crucial to the debate over energy and environmental futures. The paper discusses various energy sources which are either presently in use or will possibly be in use in the future, and analyzes their impact on cost-benefit analyses. Finally, the paper analyzes the results of carbon constraints and suggests that there is need for more research and development on the subject.



Comments on Manne and Richels: "CO2 Emission Limits: An Economic Analysis for the USA"

William W. Hogan

Year: 1990
Volume: Volume 11
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol11-No2-4
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Abstract:
This paper evaluates the Global 2100 model application on global warming by A. S. Manne and R G. Richels, which is presented in this edition of The Energy Journal The paper discusses Manne and Richels's general analytical framework, the Global 2100 model; and Manne and Richels's exploration of international interdependence, benefit calculations, and the uncertainty which must necessarily accrue to any discussion of global warming. The paper suggests that cost-benefit analyses, such as the one provided by Manne and Richels, are necessary for policy recommendations. Differences in regional impacts of global warming are noted. The paper concludes that Manne and Richels's study is very worthwhile and pleads for further studies.



Low-Cost Strategies for Coping with CO2 Emission Limits (A Critique of "CO2 Emission Limits: an Economic Cost Analysis for the USA" by Alan Manne and Richard Richels)

Robert H. Williams

Year: 1990
Volume: Volume 11
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol11-No4-3
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Abstract:
Manne and Richels (Mann and Richels, 1990) have developed a useful modelling framework for evaluating the potential economic impacts of alternative strategies for coping with greenhouse warming. Their estimate is that the discounted present value of economic consumption losses arising from a 20% reduction in CO2 emissions through the next century is in the range of $0.8 to $3.6 trillion. This critique shows that the options for reducing CO2 emissions through energy demand reduction and energy supply shifts are much broader than those considered by Manne and Richels in the initial run of their model. The possibilities are so diverse with both present and future technologies, that the minimum CO2 emissions constraint penalty estimated by Mann and Richels may well prove to be too high - and the possibility of a negative penalty cannot be ruled out. Marine and Richels are correct in arguing that a vigorous R&D program is needed to keep economic consumption losses associated with constraints on CO2 emissions at low levels, and that waiting for clarification of the scientific issues relating to the greenhouse warning before launching such R&D efforts would be unwise, but the priorities for R&D implicit in the initial nun of their model are much too narrowly focused. As this analysis indicates, a much more broadly based energy R&D program is called for.



The Costs of Reducing U.S. CO2 Emissions - Further Sensitivity Analyses

Alan S. Mann and Richard G. Richels

Year: 1990
Volume: Volume 11
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol11-No4-4
View Abstract

Abstract:
In a previous paper, we used the Global 2100 model to explore the implications of a carbon constraint upon domestic energy costs and the resulting effects on the U.S. economy as a whole (Manne and Richels (1990). The impact of a CO2 limit will depend on the technologies and resources available for meeting demands as well as on the demands themselves. Given the enormous uncertainty surrounding these factors, losses were calculated under alternative assumptions about each.



Introduction: Facts and Uncertainties

Loren C. Cox

Year: 1991
Volume: Volume 12
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol12-No1-1
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Abstract:
The unusually hot summer and drought in 1988 in parts of North America stimulated wide discussions about the cause of these events. While most scientists now studying climate believe that the 1988 events were short-run phenomenon, some scientists and many policy makers in the U.S. Congress and Administration suggest that this weather was linked to global warming caused by a build-up of the so-called greenhouse gases: carbon dioxide, nitrogen oxides, methane and chlorofluorocarbons.



Economic Activity and the Greenhouse Effect

Yoshiki Ogawa

Year: 1991
Volume: Volume 12
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol12-No1-3
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Abstract:
Global warming is recognized as one of the most important issues in international politics, although specialists are still uncertain about the role which various socio-economic factors play in global warming under a variety of conditions. Among the factors examined in this paper, the burning of fossil fuels bears the greatest responsibility for global CO2 emissions. Given the growth in emissions in the LDCs, global action to regulate emissions cannot be effective without their full participation and therefore north-south problems need to be addressed simultaneously, or before, the problem of global warming. The problem of global warming is becoming ever more urgent as energy demand has begun to increase again following the collapse of oil prices in 1986.



Productivity Trends and the Cost of Reducing CO2 Emissions

William W. Hogan and Dale W. Jorgenson

Year: 1991
Volume: Volume 12
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol12-No1-5
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Abstract:
Adequate control of CO2 emissions may require a significant increase in energy price, which in turn wilt create long-term economic costs. This paper explores the effects of long-term productivity trends in the U.S. economy and relates them to the cost of reducing CO2 emissions. Technology change has been negatively correlated with energy prices and positively correlated with materials prices. Thus, if all prices remain constant expenditures on materials per unit of output will decline, and expenditures on energy per unity of output will increase. If energy prices increase, the rate of productivity growth will decrease. This trend will be very small, if measured on an annual basis, but eventually could be quite significant. A comparison with recent cost estimates of CO2 emission control suggests that this otherwise ignored productivity effect could be the largest component of a complete cost analysis.



Global CO2 Emission Reductions - the Impacts of Rising Energy Costs

Alan S. Manne and Richard G. Richels

Year: 1991
Volume: Volume 12
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol12-No1-6
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Abstract:
In this paper, we explore how the costs of a CO2 limit are likely to vary among regions. The analysis is based on Global 2100: an analytical framework for estimating the economy-wide impacts of rising energy costs. We investigate how emissions are likely to evolve in the absence of a carbon limit, and how the regional pattern is likely to shift during the nest century. We then examine alternative strategies to limit global emissions, calculate the impacts of higher energy costs upon conventionally measured GDP, and indicate the size of the carbon tax that would be required to induce individual consumers to reduce their dependence on carbon-intensive fuels.



Cutting CO2 Emissions: The Effects of Alternative Policy Approaches

John Whalley and Randall Wigle

Year: 1991
Volume: Volume 12
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol12-No1-7
View Abstract

Abstract:
This paper starts from the premise that attempts to curtail global emissions of greenhouse gases are likely to be made in the next few decades. We discuss some of the possible international effects which could result from attempts to achieve such a cutback, and illustrate a methodology which we hope to extend, in subsequent work, to further evaluating the consequences of responding to the problem of global warming. We identify possible magnitudes of effects of cutting global CO2 emissions, and illustrate ways in which inter-country terms-of-trade effects and changes in trade patterns may occur.




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