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Will Adaptation Delay the Transition to Clean Energy Systems? An Analysis with AD-MERGE

Olivier Bahn, Kelly de Bruin, and Camille Fertel

Year: 2019
Volume: Volume 40
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.40.4.obah
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Abstract:
Climate change is one of the greatest environmental challenges facing our planet in the foreseeable future, yet, despite international environmental agreements, global GHG emissions are still increasing. In this context, adaptation measures can play an important role in reducing climate impacts. These measures involve adjustments to economic or social structures to limit the impact of climate change without limiting climate change itself. To assess the interplay of adaptation and mitigation, we develop AD-MERGE, an integrated assessment model that includes both reactive ('flow') and proactive ('stock') adaptation strategies as well as a range of mitigation (energy) technologies. We find that applying adaptation optimally delays but does not prevent the transition to clean energy systems (carbon capture and sequestration systems, nuclear, and renewables). Moreover, applying both adaptation and mitigation is more effective than using just one.



Stretching the Duck: How Rising Temperatures will Change the Level and Shape of Future Electricity Consumption

Nicholas Rivers and Blake Shaffer

Year: 2020
Volume: Volume 41
Number: Number 5
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.41.5.nriv
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Abstract:
This paper examines how rising temperatures due to climate change will affect electricity consumption patterns through mid- and end-century. We extend recent literature in two important ways. First, we directly incorporate adaptation in the form of increased air conditioner penetration, resulting in heightened responsiveness to hot temperatures. Second, we go beyond average effects to consider how higher temperatures will change the intraday and seasonal shape of consumption. This is found to be of greater importance in colder countries, where the average effect is dampened by reductions in heating demand from warmer winters. Seasonal peaks are projected to shift from winter to summer and the diurnal range of hourly consumption expands, exacerbating an increasing need for flexibility coming from the supply side due to a growing share of renewable energy.



Adaptation Funding and Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Halo Effect or Complacency?

Salpie Djoundourian, Walid Marrouch, and Nagham Sayour

Year: 2022
Volume: Volume 43
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.43.4.sdjo
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Abstract:
This paper contributes to the debate surrounding the impact of adaptation to climate change on the incentives to abate greenhouse gases emissions. Using data from the World Development Indicators and various adaptation funds under the UNFCCC framework, this paper provides an empirical analysis of the relation between adaptation and emissions. We specifically test whether adaptation measures to climate change affect emissions of greenhouse gases in a world where adaptation funds are available. Using a staggered difference-in-differences approach and an event study analysis, we find that receiving adaptation funding significantly and negatively affects several CO2 emissions measures, providing preliminary evidence of the presence of a halo effect of adaptation funding. We do not find evidence of a significant change in the emissions of methane, nitrous dioxide and other greenhouse gases.





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