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Shocks and Stocks: A Bottom-up Assessment of the Relationship Between Oil Prices, Gasoline Prices and the Returns of Chinese Firms

David C. Broadstock, Ying Fan, Qiang Ji, and Dayong Zhang

Year: 2016
Volume: Volume 37
Number: China Special Issue
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.37.SI1.dbro
View Abstract

Abstract:
Oil price shocks are known to affect the financial sector of the economy, due to the inflationary effects, and increasing costs of doing business they create. Though oil-shocks and financial markets are widely researched, there remains scope for deeper understanding using firm level data. We therefore contribute to the literature by extending widely applied multi-factor asset pricing models to a sample of 963 Chinese firms (between 2005-2013) to (i) systematically evaluate their reactions to oil price shocks, and (ii) further include regulated gasoline prices as a more direct measure of the energy-prices faced by firms. 89.2% of firms are susceptible to oil shocks, with positive and negative reactions observed even for firms within the same industry. Gasoline price shocks are more pervasive, affecting 95.7% of firms. Considering oil and gasoline separately allows us to review gasoline price regulation in China, which ultimately appears ineffective in achieving its intended goals.



The Economic Effects of Initial Quota Allocations on Carbon Emissions Trading in China

Jie Wu, Ying Fan, Yan Xia

Year: 2016
Volume: Volume 37
Number: China Special Issue
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.37.SI1.jwu
View Abstract

Abstract:
The emissions trading scheme has recently become an important emissions reduction mechanism in China. The initial quota allocation is one of the key points in its design, which includes the initial quota allocation criterion and allocation method. In this paper, we analyze the regional macroeconomic impacts of emissions trading in China under different quota allocation criteria and allocation methods using a multiregional computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The results show that the Ability-to-Pay criterion is better than the other criteria, as it can lead to fewer macroeconomic costs and welfare losses; narrow the economic gap between the eastern, central and western regions; and guide investment into the western regions. Comparing free allocation and auction, it is determined that free allocation leads to lower macroeconomic costs, while auction is better at adjusting the industrial structure. This indicates that a hybrid allocation method is preferable.



Introduction

Ying fan and Adonis Yatchew

Year: 2016
Volume: Volume 37
Number: China Special Issue
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.37.SI1.yfan
No Abstract



Regional Opportunities for China To Go Low-Carbon: Results from the REEC Model

Hongbo Duan, Lei Zhu, Gürkan Kumbaroglu, and Ying Fan

Year: 2016
Volume: Volume 37
Number: China Special Issue
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.37.SI1.hdua
View Abstract

Abstract:
The intention of this paper is to (i) introduce a multi-regional dynamic emissions trading model and (ii) examine the potential impact of an emissions trading scheme (ETS) on the long-term evolution of energy technologies from national and regional perspectives in China. The establishment of this model is a salutary attempt to Sinicize the global integrated assessment model that combines economy, energy, and environment systems. The simulation results indicate that: (1) for majority of regions, ETS is more effective in cutting CO2 emissions than a harmonized carbon tax (HCT), but this might not be true for the entire country, which means that these two options have little difference in overall carbon reduction; (2) carbon tax policy is a more cost-effective option in curbing CO2 with respect to ETS in the long run; (3) neither ETS nor pure carbon tax provide enough incentives for the breakthrough of carbon-free energy technologies, which illustrates that matching with some other support policies, such as subsidies and R&D investment, is essential to extend the niche market; and (4) In the context of ETS, the diffusion of non-fossil technologies in regions that act as sellers performs much better than this diffusion in the buyer regions.



China’s Natural Gas Demand Projections and Supply Capacity Analysis in 2030

Qiang Ji, Ying Fan, Mike Troilo, Ronald D. Ripple, and Lianyong Feng

Year: 2018
Volume: Volume 39
Number: Number 6
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.39.6.qji
View Abstract

Abstract:
This paper builds an econometric model to analyze the income elasticity and price elasticities of sectoral natural gas demand and forecasts China's natural gas demand up to 2030. The findings indicate that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship among sectoral natural gas demand, sectoral income and various fuel prices. The results also indicate that most price elasticities are smaller relative to developed countries; the effect of fuel prices on natural gas demand is partly offset by the government regulation. In the Business As Usual (BAU) scenario, China's natural gas demand will reach 340 bcm and 528 bcm and its foreign dependence will reach 27.9% and 43.2% in 2020 and 2030, respectively. The forecast and discussion in this paper provide important insights into China's energy policy design and pricing mechanism reform, and into the potential impact of China's growing natural gas demand on global energy market dynamics.



The Spatial Deployment of Renewable Energy Based on China's Coal-heavy Generation Mix and Inter-regional Transmission Grid

Bo-Wen Yi, Wolfgang Eichhammer, Benjamin Pfluger, Ying Fan, and Jin-Hua Xu

Year: 2019
Volume: Volume 40
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.40.4.bwyi
View Abstract

Abstract:
China has set a goal of 20% non-fossil energy in total primary energy consumption by 2030. The decision of where to invest in renewable energy, and to what extent, needs to be considered from a forward-looking perspective. This article presents a power sector optimization model that integrates unit commitment with long-term generation expansion planning framework. Power dispatches at an hourly level are combined with yearly investment decisions. Based on the model, this article analyzes the optimal spatial deployment of renewable energy. The results show that regional differences in non-hydro renewable energy are significant. Approximately 75% should be deployed in the north of China. With the increase of combined heat and power, more renewable energy facilities, especially solar photovoltaic, should be located in the south of China. Inter-regional power transmission is beneficial to onshore wind in resource-rich areas, and could mitigate the conflict between coal-heavy generation mix and renewable energy.





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