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Inside the Black Box: the Price Linkage and Transmission between Energy and Agricultural Markets

Xiaodong Du and Lihong Lu McPhail

Year: 2012
Volume: Volume 33
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.33.2.8
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Abstract:
Motivated by strong comovement and increasing volatility of energy and agricultural prices, we examine dynamic evolutions of ethanol, gasoline, and corn prices over the period of March 2005-March 2011. A structural change is found around March 2008 in the pairwise dynamic correlations between the prices in a multivariate GARCH model. A structural VAR (SVAR) model is then estimated on two subsamples, one before and one after the identified change point. Using the novel method of identification through heteroscedasticity, we exploit the time-varying price volatilities to fully identify the SVAR model. In the more recent period, ethanol, gasoline, and corn prices are found to be more closely linked with a strengthened corn-ethanol relation, which can be largely explained by the new developments of the biofuel industry and related policy instruments. Variance decomposition shows that for each market a significant and relatively large share of the price variation could be explained by the price changes in the other two markets. The results are robust to the inclusion of seasonal dummies and various representative macroeconomic and financial indicators. Keywords: Biofuel, Identification through heteroscedasticity, Structural change, Structural VAR



Transition and Integration of the ERCOT Market with the Competitive Renewable Energy Zones Project

Xiaodong Du and Ofir D. Rubin

Year: 2018
Volume: Volume 39
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.39.4.oru
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Abstract:
In this study, we seek to explore the impact of a state level transmission expansion project, the Competitive Renewable Energy Zones (CREZ), whose goal is to integrate a massive amount of wind energy, on the wholesale market prices in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT). We find strong evidence for price convergence across ERCOT with accordance to the timing of the expansion of major sections of the CREZ. A variety of empirical analyses shows a gradual transition to a well-integrated market. We also find that regional-specific shocks became more important in terms of driving price change in other regions. Specifically, the impacts of Houston (demand) and the West (wind supply) on each other and the North and South regions have increased significantly. Our study contributes to the literature by connecting the expansion of physical transmission lines with electricity market integration.



Transmission Integration and the Market for Congestion Revenue Rights

Gaurav Doshi and Xiaodong Du

Year: 2021
Volume: Volume 42
Number: Number 5
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.42.5.gdos
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Abstract:
Texas electricity market saw a recent integration of electricity transmission as a part of Competitive Renewable Energy Zones (CREZ). Exploiting the commissioning date of CREZ based transmission integration as an exogenous shock, we analyze the effect of transmission expansion on market clearing prices of Congestion Revenue Rights (CRR). Reduced form estimates suggest that excess transmission led to a lowering of CRR prices for contracts at all Times of Use. We find strong evidence of spatial, distributional, and firm specific heterogeneity. The paper shows that transmission expansion enhanced efficiency of the CRR market in terms of a spatial convergence in prices and a decrease in aggregate auction expenditure of approximately $260 million over a period of 4.5 years post CREZ.





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