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Assessment of CO2 Reductions and Economic Impacts Considering Energy-Saving Investments

Toshihiko Masui, Tatsuya Hanaoka, Saeko Hikita, and Mikiko Kainuma

Year: 2006
Volume: Endogenous Technological Change
Number: Special Issue #1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-VolSI2006-NoSI1-8
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Abstract:
Using a global dynamic optimization model that includes a notion of endogenous energy-saving investments, economic impacts and energy-system changes are assessed under several policy cases where CO2 concentration is stabilized at the 450, 500, and 550 ppm levels by the year 2100. The effect of increased investments in energy-saving technologies on energy efficiency is derived exogenously from results of the AIM/Enduse model applied to Japan, then endogenized in the global dynamic optimization model.We find that with diffusion of energy-saving technologies, GDP loss during the 21st century falls from 2.5% to 2.1% in the 450 ppm case. The impact is small for the 550 ppm case, however, because a shift to low-carbon-intensive energies such as gas and renewable energies does not occur to a significant extent under this target.



Multi-gas Mitigation Analysis on Stabilization Scenarios Using Aim Global Model

Junichi Fujino, Rajesh Nair, Mikiko Kainuma, Toshihiko Masui  and Yuzuru Matsuoka  

Year: 2006
Volume: Multi-Greenhouse Gas Mitigation and Climate Policy
Number: Special Issue #3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-VolSI2006-NoSI3-17
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Abstract:
Non-CO2 gas (CH4, N2O and F gas) emissions account for 25 percent of all greenhouse gas in the year of 2000. Main sources of CH4 and N2O emissions are agriculture-related activities such as enteric fermentation, paddy rice cultivation, soil management. A recursive dynamic CGE (Computer General Equilibrium) model has been developed to analyze greenhouse gas reduction options including non-CO2 gas abatement technologies. Multi-regional, multisectoral and multi-gas CGE model and simple climate change model simulated long-term climate stabilization emission path. Preliminary results showed that multi gas mitigation options including CH4 and N2O abatement technologies will reduce GDP loss more than CO2 only mitigation options for long-term climate stabilization, even though CO2 mitigation options will reduce not only CO2 emissions but non-CO2 gas emissions simultaneously. It is necessary to collect regional non-CO2 gas data (emission, technology options, and so on) and conduct more sensitivity analysis with computer simulation model to reduce uncertainty of non-CO2 gas.





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