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Energy Price Increases and Macroeconomic Policy

Robert S. Pindyck

Year: 1980
Volume: Volume 1
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol1-No4-1
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Abstract:
A rising world price of energy imposes a macroeconomic cost on the United States in two different ways. First, to the extent that energy is both an important input to production and a consumption good, with limited elasticities of substitution and demand, the economy's production and consumption possibilities are necessarily reduced as energy becomes more scarce. Thus, even if an expansionary monetary and fiscal policy were successful in pushing the economy close to its full capacity level, the resulting real national income would be lower than if energy prices had notAn earlier version of this paper was presented at the CEPR Conference on Energy Prices, Inflation and Economic Activity, Cambridge, November 9, 1979. Work leading to this paperwas supported by the Center for Energy Policy Research of the M.I.T. Energy Laboratory, and that support is gratefully acknowledged. In writing this paper, I benefited considerablyfrom conversations with and comments from Olivier Blanchard, Stanley Fischer, Benjamin Friedman, Robert Hall, Franco Modigliani, Robert Solow, and an anonymous referee.



The Long-Run Evolutions of Energy Prices

Robert S. Pindyck

Year: 1999
Volume: Volume20
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol20-No2-1
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Abstract:
In this paper I examine the long-run behavior of oil, coal, and natural gas prices, using up to 127 years of data, and address the following questions: Mat does over a century of data tell us about the stochastic dynamics of price evolution, and how it should be modelled? Can models of reversion to stochastically fluctuating trend lines help us forecast prices over horizons of 20 years or more? And what do the answers to these questions tell us about investment decisions that are dependent on prices and their stochastic evolution ?



The Dynamics of Commodity Spot and Futures Markets: A Primer

Robert S. Pindyck

Year: 2001
Volume: Volume22
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol22-No3-1
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