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Energy Conservation versus Supply Strategies: Implications for Industrial Policy

Bernard Bourgeois, Patrick Criqui, and Jacques Percebois

Year: 1988
Volume: Volume 9
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol9-No3-4
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Abstract:
Many strategies were developed by energy-importing countries to cope with oil shocks. Some mainly adapted to the new constraints of the energy environment and tried to make up for a relative disadvantage in the energy field by obtaining a relative advantage in industry or trade. The main effect of these adaptation strategies has been to offset growing energy deficits with steadily increasing industrial surpluses. On the other hand, other strategies were adopted which aimed above all at restructuring the domestic energy system through a voluntaristic policy of promoting domestic energy supply. In these cases, investment in the energy sector was given a high priority, sometimes at the expense of other industrial sectors.



Impacts of Multi-gas Strategies for Greenhouse Gas Emission Abatement: Insights from a Partial Equilibrium Model

Patrick Criqui, Peter Russ and Daniel Deybe

Year: 2006
Volume: Multi-Greenhouse Gas Mitigation and Climate Policy
Number: Special Issue #3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-VolSI2006-NoSI3-12
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Abstract:
The Version 5 of the POLES model has been developed for the assessment of multi-gas emission reduction strategies. Abatement options have been introduced for all non-CO2 GHGs in the Kyoto Basket and, for the agricultural sector, Marginal Abatement Cost curves have been derived from the new AGRIPOL model. Combined with an international emission permit scheme that is based on the Soft Landing approach, an emission profile respecting climate targets of 550 ppmv provides a relatively soft constraint case for developing countries. The multi-gas analyses first of all demonstrate the relevance of the approach as changing from a CO2�only to a multi-gas strategy either allows to increase total abatement of 25% for the same Marginal Abatement Cost or to decrease the MAC of approximately 30% for the same total abatement. Not surprisingly however, the impacts on world demand and primary fuel mix are less pronounced in the multi-gas case. This is easily understandable as a counterpart for introducing more margins of freedom in the abatement effort.



The Economics of Low Stabilization: Model Comparison of Mitigation Strategies and Costs

Ottmar Edenhofer , Brigitte Knopf, Terry Barker, Lavinia Baumstark, Elie Bellevrat, Bertrand Chateau, Patrick Criqui, Morna Isaac, Alban Kitous, Socrates Kypreos, Marian Leimbach, Kai Lessmann, Bertrand Magne, Serban Scrieciu, Hal Turton, Detlef P. van Vuuren

Year: 2010
Volume: Volume 31
Number: Special Issue
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol31-NoSI-2
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Abstract:
This study gives a synthesis of a model comparison assessing the technological feasibility and economic consequences of achieving greenhouse gas concentration targets that are sufficiently low to keep the increase in global mean temperature below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. All five global energy-environment-economy models show that achieving low greenhouse gas concentration targets is technically feasible and economically viable. The ranking of the importance of individual technology options is robust across models. For the lowest stabilization target (400 ppm CO2 eq), the use of bio-energy in combination with CCS plays a crucial role, and biomass potential dominates the cost of reaching this target. Without CCS or the considerable extension of renewables the 400 ppm CO2 eq target is not achievable. Across the models, estimated aggregate costs up to 2100 are below 0.8% global GDP for 550 ppm CO2 eq stabilization and below 2.5% for the 400 ppm CO2 eq pathway.



Transformation Patterns of the Worldwide Energy System - Scenarios for the Century with the POLES Model

Alban Kitous, Patrick Criqui, Elie Bellevrat and Bertrand Chateau

Year: 2010
Volume: Volume 31
Number: Special Issue
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol31-NoSI-3
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Abstract:
This paper presents a long-term assessment of the worldwide energy system in scenarios ranging from a baseline to a very low greenhouse gas stabilization, using the energy model POLES. Despite improved energy efficiency, the baseline scenario would lead to a doubling in energy consumption by 2050 increasing further thereafter. CO2 emissions would continue rising, driven by the coal consumed in the power production which roughly follows the GDP growth; the scarcity of oil resources would trigger the development of alternative vehicles. Conversely, a 400 ppm CO2 eq stabilization case would lead to drastic changes in supply (renewables - biomass), transformation (carbon capture and storage) and demand (low energy technologies). It transpires that the contribution to the reduction effort of low stabilization compared to a baseline scenario would be similar for final consumption (36% efficiency and 10% fuel mix) and for the power sector (25% renewables, 25% CCS, 4% nuclear). In addition this low emission scenario would alleviate the tensions on fossil energy markets.





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