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The objECTS Framework for integrated Assessment: Hybrid Modeling of Transportation

Son H. Kim, Jae Edmonds, Josh Lurz, Steven J. Smith, and Marshall Wise

Year: 2006
Volume: Hybrid Modeling
Number: Special Issue #2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-VolSI2006-NoSI2-4
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Abstract:
Technology is a central issue for the global climate change problem, requiring analysis tools that can examine the impact of specific technologies within a long-term, global context. This paper describes the architecture of the ObjECTS-MiniCAM integrated assessment model, which implements a long-term, global model of energy, economy, agriculture, land-use, atmosphere, and climate change in a framework that allows the flexible incorporation of explicit technology detail. We describe the implementation of a �bottom-up� representation of the transportation sector as an illustration of this approach, in which the resulting hybrid model is fully integrated, internally consistent and theoretically compatible with the regional and global modeling framework. The analysis of the transportation sector presented here supports and clarifies the need for a comprehensive strategy promoting advanced vehicle technologies and an economy-wide carbon policy to cost-effectively reduce carbon emissions from the transportation sector in the long-term.



The Value of Advanced End-Use Energy Technologies in Meeting U.S. Climate Policy Goals

Page Kyle, Leon Clarke, Steven J. Smith, Son Kim, Mayda Nathan, and Marshall Wise

Year: 2011
Volume: Volume 32
Number: Special Issue
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol32-SI1-5
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Abstract:
This study, a contribution to the EMF 25 scenarios on the role of energy efficiency in climate change mitigation, explores the value of technological improvement in the buildings, industry, and transportation sectors in meeting 2050 CO2 emissions mitigation targets in the United States. Six scenarios of future end-use technology evolution are analyzed without any future emissions mitigation policy, and with two linear emissions constraints that begin in 2012 and achieve 50% and 80% reductions from 1990 CO2 emissions levels in 2050.The scenarios show that end-use technologies are important for reducing near-term energy demand and CO2 emissions, and advanced transportation technologies in particular are important for allowing the energy system as a whole to achieve deep emissions reductions in a cost-effective manner. Total discounted economic costs of meeting the emissions constraints are reduced by up to 53% by advanced end-use technologies, and similar cost reductions are observed when the policies allow inter-temporal shifting in the emissions pathways (i.e., banking and borrowing). The scenarios highlight the importance of end-use technologies that facilitate electrification and decrease the direct use of hydrocarbon fuels through efficiency improvement, but we stress that end-use technology advancement should be complementary to technology advancement in energy supply.





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