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An Integrated Model of Oil Production

John R. Moroney and M. Douglas Berg

Year: 1999
Volume: Volume20
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol20-No1-6
View Abstract

This paper demonstrates that models which combine the physical reserves of oil with economic and regulatory variables provide better forecasts of future production than models based on either reserves or economic variables alone. Four alternative models are specified and estimated. Out-of-sample forecasts show that a model combining reserves, lagged production, and the real price of oil performs much better than models based on reserves alone or economic variables alone.

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