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Valuation of International Oil Companies

Petter Osmundsen, Frank Asche, Bard Misund, and Klaus Mohn

Year: 2006
Volume: Volume 27
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol27-No3-4
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Abstract:
According to economic theory, exploration and development of new oil and gas fields should respond positively to increasing petroleum prices. But since the late 1990s, stock market analysts have focused strongly on short-term accounting return measures, like RoACE , for benchmarking and valuation of international oil and gas companies. Consequently, exaggerated capital discipline among oil and gas companies may have reduced their willingness to invest for future reserves and production growth. Based on panel data for 14 international oil and gas companies for the period 1990-2003, we seek to establish econometric relations between market valuation on one hand, and simple financial and operational indicators on the other. Our findings do not support the general perception of RoACE as an important valuation metric in the oil and gas industry. We find that the variation in company valuations is mainly explained by the oil price, oil and gas production, and to some extent reserve replacement.



Efforts and Efficiency in Oil Exploration: A Vector Error-Correction Approach

Klaus Mohn

Year: 2008
Volume: Volume 29
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol29-No4-3
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Abstract:
High oil prices and gradual resource depletion have raised global concerns for security of energy supply. Successful exploration activity is a critical factor for future oil production. Based on standard neoclassical producer behavior and modern time series econometrics, this study reveals new insights into the process of oil and gas exploration. I find that reserve additions are enhanced by an increase in the oil price, due to responses both in effort and efficiency of exploration. Moreover, oil companies accept higher exploration risk in response to an oil price increase, implying lower success rates and higher expected discovery size.



Arctic Oil and Public Finance: Norway’s Lofoten Region and Beyond

Klaus Mohn

Year: 2019
Volume: Volume 40
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.40.3.kmoh
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Abstract:
This study explores potential implications of Arctic oil and gas exploration for public finance, with the Norwegian Lofoten region as a valuation case. A model is calibrated to turn oil and gas resource estimates into projections for investment, production, and net cash flows, which are discounted to assess the direct impact for the government budget. With the Norwegian oil fund mechanism and fiscal policy rule, Lofoten oil and gas revenues could add fiscal capacity in the range of 0.1-2.4 per cent of the current government budget, implying a permanent increase in annual government spending (or tax relief) of 24-220 USD per capita. Corresponding implications for other resource-rich countries in the Arctic depend on their resource potential and the relative role of oil and gas in their economy.





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