Search

Begin New Search
Proceed to Checkout

Search Results for All:
(Showing results 1 to 3 of 3)



Technology and the Exploratory Success Rate in the U.S. Offshore

Kevin F. Forbes and Ernest M. Zampelli

Year: 2000
Volume: Volume21
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol21-No1-5
View Abstract

Abstract:
Over the last 20 years, the offshore exploratory success rate has more than doubled for a group of large producers which includes Exxon, Shell, Mobil, and Texaco, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). It is tempting to conclude that this increase can be attributed to the many advances in seismic and drilling technologies that have occurred over the same period. However, such a conclusion may be premature given that much of the increase in the success rate occurred in the late 1970s and early 1980s, well before the major advancements in seismic technology. The conclusion may also be premature in that it ignores the relationship between price and the success rate. Increases in the price may positively (negatively) affect the success rate. Given this, and the decline in price over the past decade, one would expect the success rate to have declined (increased) in the absence of technological change. This paper develops an econometric model that attempts to disentangle and quantify the effects of the major factors hypothesized to affect the offshore exploratory success rate. The analysis relies on company level data from the EIA's Financial Reporting System over the period 1978 through 1995.



Do Day-Ahead Electricity Prices Reflect Economic Fundamentals? Evidence from the California ISO

Kevin F. Forbes and Ernest M. Zampelli

Year: 2014
Volume: Volume 35
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.35.3.6
View Abstract

Abstract:
This paper hypothesizes that if day-ahead markets for electricity are efficient, then the day-ahead prices will reflect the processed information and expectations of all market participants regarding the next day's electricity load and thus the prices may be useful in actually predicting the next day's load. We test this hypothesis using data for the PG&E aggregation area in the California ISO. The results provide evidence of a positive and significant relationship between the hourly day-ahead electricity price (relative to the natural gas price) and the subsequent actual hourly load. The reported relationship is sufficiently robust to produce a forecast based on the day-ahead hourly price relative to the price of natural gas, some binary variables, and a number of estimated ARMA disturbances that is considerably more accurate than the ISO's day-ahead forecast. Keywords: Electricity markets, Electricity prices, Market efficiency, Load forecasting, Smart grid, California ISO



Modelling the Growth in Gas Reseves From Known Fields

Kevin F. Forbes and Ernest M. Zampelli

Year: 2009
Volume: Volume 30
Number: Special Issue
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol30-NoSI-13
View Abstract

Abstract:
The extent to which future United States demand for natural gas is satisfied by imports of LNG is contingent on the adequacy and cost competitiveness of North American supplies. One of the cheaper and more important sources of natural gas supply is accounted for by reserve appreciation, i.e., reserve growth, in known fields. Based on an extensively applied methodology developed by Arrington (1960), the increase in proved ultimate recovery is presumed to increase at a diminishing rate with the age of the field. In this paper, a single equation model of natural gas reserve growth in the Gulf of Mexico is developed and estimated. The results strongly suggest that the annual growth rate in the reserves of a field is significantly affected by initial discovery size, price, water depth, and unobserved field-specific effects. Hence, estimating oil and gas reserve growth using an Arrington based approach may underestimate the response of reserve growth to changes in economic fundamentals.





Begin New Search
Proceed to Checkout

 

© 2024 International Association for Energy Economics | Privacy Policy | Return Policy