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Output and Energy: An International Analysis

John R. Moroney

Year: 1989
Volume: Volume 10
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol10-No3-1
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This paper analyzes the relationship between GNP per capita and energy consumption per capita for 43 market economies during the years 1978, 1979, and 1980. Several functional forms are analyzed. Specification tests establish that a double logarithmic equation is preferable to all others. Statistical estimates further indicate a distinct pattern of diminishing real income response to greater per capita energy consumption. Advanced economies with relatively low-cost energy (Canada, Norway, the U.S.A.) exhibit practically identical per capita incomes as industrialized nations with higher-cost energy (Sweden, France, and the Federal Republic of Germany).

An Integrated Model of Oil Production

John R. Moroney and M. Douglas Berg

Year: 1999
Volume: Volume20
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol20-No1-6
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This paper demonstrates that models which combine the physical reserves of oil with economic and regulatory variables provide better forecasts of future production than models based on either reserves or economic variables alone. Four alternative models are specified and estimated. Out-of-sample forecasts show that a model combining reserves, lagged production, and the real price of oil performs much better than models based on reserves alone or economic variables alone.

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