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Integrating Direct Metering and Conditional Demand Analysis for Estimating End-Use Loads

Robert Bartels and Denzil G. Fiebig

Year: 1990
Volume: Volume 11
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol11-No4-5
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Abstract:
Conditional demand analysis (CDA) is a statistical method for allocating the total household electricity load during a period, into its constituent components, each associated with a particular electricity-using appliance or end-use. This is an indirect approach to the estimation of end-use demand and, quite naturally, it often generates imprecise estimates. One of the possible methods for improving these estimates involves the incorporation of data obtained by directly metering specific appliances. It is argued that an extremely natural approach to the use of this extra information follows directly from a reformulation of the standard CDA model into a random coefficient framework Some new results on the possible efficiency gains from such an approach are developed. Illustrations based on an empirical study of New South Wales (NSW) households are also provided.



Gas or Electricity, which is Cheaper? An Econometric Approach with Application to Australian Expenditure Data

Robert Bartels, Denzil G. Fiebig and Michael H. Plumb

Year: 1996
Volume: Volume17
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol17-No4-2
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Abstract:
The question of whether it is cheaper for households to use electricity or gas for space heating, water heating and cooking, generates much debate in Australia. Generally, gas appliances are technically less efficient than electrical appliances, but on a per MJ basis, gas is cheaper than electricity. The trade-off between these two factors has typically been assessed using an engineering approach which ignores the fact that gas and electric appliances might be used in different ways in the home and that there may be price effects. This paper utilises an alternative perspective based on econometric methods. We analyse the actual energy expenditures of a large sample of Australian households and estimate the expenditure on the main end-uses for households using different fuel types. We find that households using electricity for main heating spend considerably less than households using gas. For cooking, households using gas generally spend less, while for water heating the results are mixed. We discuss several possible interpretations of these results in terms of consumer preferences and running costs.



Residential End-Use Electricity Demand: Results from a Designed Experiment

Robert Bartels and Denzil G. Fiebig

Year: 2000
Volume: Volume21
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol21-No2-3
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Abstract:
Being able to disaggregate total energy demand into components attributable to specific end uses provides useful information and represents a primary input into any attempt to simulate the impact of policies aimed at encouraging households to use less energy or shift load. Conceptually the estimation problem can be solved by directly metering individual appliances. Not surprisingly, this has not been widely practised and by far the most common estimation procedure has been the indirect statistical approach known as conditional demand analysis. More recently, with access to limited direct metering, both approaches have been used in combination. This paper reports on a substantial modelling exercise that represents a unique example of combining data of this type. The distinctive aspects are the extent and richness of the metering data and the fact that optimal design techniques were used to decide on the pattern of metering. As such, the empirical results are able to provide a very detailed and accurate picture of how total residential load is disaggregated by end uses. Significantly, the consumption of high penetration end uses such as lighting, which cannot be estimated by conventional conditional demand analysis, has been successfully estimated. Also, by matching our estimates of end-use load curves with some recent prices paid by distributors to purchase electricity from an electricity market pool, we have been able to determine the costs to distributors associated with servicing individual end uses.





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