Facebook LinkedIn Twitter
Shop
Search
Begin New Search
Proceed to Checkout
Search Results for All:
(Showing results 1 to 4 of 4)



Transporting Russian Gas to Western Europe — A Simulation Analysis

Christian von Hirschhausen, Berit Meinhart, and Ferdinand Pavel

Year: 2005
Volume: Volume 26
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol26-No2-3
View Abstract

Abstract:
This paper examines the options of transporting Russian gas to Western Europe, an issue that has thus far been dominated by a single transit country, Ukraine, which has recently witnessed substantial political turmoil. The completion of a new transit corridor through Belarus in 1999, the so-called Yamal-Europe pipeline, has modified the situation profoundly. The paper develops a model of different strategies of Russia and Ukraine, and derives the analytical solution for Russian gas exports to Western Europe, prices, and the expected profits for the players; we also calibrate numerical results and perform simulations. It turns out that Ukraine suffers a loss from the market entry of Belarus, Russia�s profits significantly increase, and Russia has an incentive to expand its gas transit capacity through Belarus further. The gas price for West European importers falls in the case of cooperative behavior of Russia and Ukraine, and/or new pipeline construction through Belarus. However, both developments would also imply a higher European import dependence on Russian gas.



Introduction

Christian von Hirschhausen and Claudia Kemfert

Year: 2016
Volume: Volume 37
Number: Sustainable Infrastructure Development and Cross-Border Coordination
DOI: https://doi.org/10.5547/01956574.37.SI3.cvon
No Abstract



Representing GASPEC with the World Gas Model

Ruud Egging, Franziska Holz, Christian von Hirschhausen and Steven A. Gabriel

Year: 2009
Volume: Volume 30
Number: Special Issue
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol30-NoSI-7
View Abstract

Abstract:
This paper presents results of simulating a more collusive behavior of a group of natural gas producing and exporting countries, sometimes called GASPEC. We use the World Gas Model, a dynamic, strategic representation of world gas production, trade, and consumption between 2005 and 2030. In particular, we simulate a closer cooperation of the GASPEC countries when exporting pipeline gas and liquefied natural gas; we also run a more drastic scenario where GASPEC countries deliberately hold back production. The results show that compared to our Base Case, a gas cartel would reduce total supplied quantities and induce price increases in gas importing countries up to 22%. There is evidence that the natural gas markets in Europe and North America would be affected more than other parts of the world. Lastly, the vulnerability of gas importers worldwide is further illustrated by the results of a sensitivity case in which price levels are up to 87% higher in Europe and North America.



Perspectives of the European Natural Gas Markets Until 2025

Franziska Holz, Christian von Hirschhausen and Claudia Kemfert

Year: 2009
Volume: Volume 30
Number: Special Issue
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol30-NoSI-9
View Abstract

Abstract:
We apply the EMF 23 study design to simulate the effects of the reference case and the scenarios to European natural gas supplies to 2025. We use GASMOD, a strategic several-layer model of European natural gas supply, consisting of upstream natural gas producers, traders in each consuming European country (or region), and final demand. Our model results suggest rather modest changes in the overall supply situation of natural gas to Europe, indicating that current worries about energy supply security issues may be overrated. LNG will likely increase its share of European natural gas imports in the future, Russia will not dominate the European imports (share of ~1/3), the Middle East will continue to be a rather modest supplier, the UK is successfully converting from being a natural gas exporter to become a transit node for LNG towards continental Europe, and congested pipeline infrastructure, and in some cases LNG terminals, will remain a feature of the European natural gas markets, but less than in the current situation.





Begin New Search
Proceed to Checkout

 





function toggleAbstract(id) { alert(id); }