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Unit Root Behavior in Energy Futures Prices

Apostolos Serletis

Year: 1992
Volume: Volume 13
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol13-No2-6
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Abstract:
This paper re-examines the empirical evidence for random walk type behavior in energy futures prices. In doing so, tests for unit roots in the univariate time-series representation of the daily crude oil, heating oil, and unleaded gasoline series are performed using recent state-of-the-art methodology. The results show that the unit root hypothesis can be rejected if allowance is made for the possibility of a one-time break in the intercept and the slope of the trend function at an unknown point in time.



Business Cycles and the Behavior of Energy Prices

Apostolos Serletis and Vaughn Hullernan

Year: 1994
Volume: Volume15
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol15-No2-7
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Abstract:
This paper tests the theory of storage-the hypothesis that the marginal convenience yield on inventory falls at a decreasing rate as inventory increases in energy markets (crude oil, heating oil, and unleaded gas markets). We use the Fama and French (1988) indirect test, based on the relative variation in spot and futures prices. The results suggest that the theory holds for the energy markets.



Is There an East-West Split in North American Natural Gas Markets?

Apostolos Serletis

Year: 1997
Volume: Volume18
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol18-No1-2
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Abstract:
This paper presents evidence concerning shared stochastic trends in North American natural gas (spot) markets, using monthly data for the period that natural gas has been traded on organized exchanges (from June, 1990 to January, 1996). In doing so, it uses the Engle and Granger (1987) approach for estimating bivariate cointegrating relationships as well as Johansen's (1988) maximum likelihood approach for estimating cointegrating relationships in multivariate vector autoregressive models. The results indicate that the east-west split does not exist.



The North American Natural Gas Liquids Markets are Chaotic

Apostolos Serletis and Periklis Gogas

Year: 1999
Volume: Volume20
Number: Number 1
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol20-No1-5
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Abstract:
In this paper we test for deterministic chaos (i.e., nonlinear deterministic processes which look random) in seven Mont Belview, Texas, hydrocarbon markets, using monthly data from 1985:1 to 1996:12--the markets are those of ethane, propane, normal butane, iso-butane, naptha, crude oil, and natural gas. In doing so, we use the Lyapunov exponent estimator of Nychka, Ellner, Gallant, and McCaffrey (1992). We conclude that there is evidence, consistent with a chaotic nonlinear generation process in all five natural gas liquids markets.



Informational Efficiency and Interchange Transactions in Alberta's Electricity Market

Apostolos Serletis and Mattia Bianchi

Year: 2007
Volume: Volume 28
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol28-No3-7
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Abstract:
This paper aims to investigate the informational efficiency of the Alberta electricity market and also the issue of whether interchange transactions (power flows between markets) are becoming increasingly significant factors in electric power markets. In doing so, we use hourly data for all hours, peak hours, and off-peak hours over the period from January 1st, 1999 to July 31st, 2005. In testing the efficiency of the Alberta power market, we use a statistical physics approach � namely the �detrending moving average (DMA)� technique, introduced by Alessio et al. (2002) and further developed by Carbone et al. (2004a, 2004b), and recently applied to energy futures markets by Serletis and Rosenberg (2007). In analyzing the relationship between power imports and exports and pool prices, we assess whether regulatory changes have modified the causal relationship between import/export volumes and the pool price. According to our results, the electricity market in Alberta is highly inefficient and cross-border trade of electricity between Alberta and neighbouring jurisdictions helps predict the price dynamics in Alberta�s electricity market.



International Evidence on Sectoral Interfuel Substitution

Apostolos Serletis, Govinda R. Timilsina and Olexandr Vasetsky

Year: 2010
Volume: Volume 31
Number: Number 4
DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol31-No4-1
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Abstract:
This paper estimates interfuel substitution elasticities in selected devel�oping and industrialized economies at the sector level. In doing so, it employs state-of-the-art techniques in microeconometrics, particularly the locally .exible normalized quadratic functional form, and provides evidence consistent with neo�classical microeconomic theory. The results indicate that the interfuel substitution elasticities are consistently below unity, revealing the limited ability to substitute between major energy commodities (i.e., coal, oil, gas, and electricity). We .nd that on average, industrial and residential sectors tend to exhibit higher potential for substitution between energy inputs as compared to the electricity generation and transportation sectors in all countries, with the United States being the only exception. In addition, we .nd that developed countries demonstrate higher po�tential for interfuel substitution in their industrial and transportation sectors as compared to the developing economies. The implication is that interfuel substi�tution depends on the structure of the economy, not the level of economic devel�opment. Moreover, higher changes in relative prices are needed than what we have already experienced to induce switching toward a lower carbon economy.



Oil Price Uncertainty and Industrial Production

Karl Pinno and Apostolos Serletis

Year: 2013
Volume: Volume 34
Number: Number 3
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.34.3.9
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Abstract:
We estimate a bivariate GARCH-in-Mean VAR with a BEKK variance specification, to investigate whether oil price volatility affects real economic activity. We use the same data set of thirty seven, aggregate and disaggregate, industrial production indices used by Herrera et al. (2011) as a proxy for real output and a post-1973 data sample. We check the robustness of our results by using two proxies for the price of oil, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil price and the Refiners' Acquisition Cost (RAC) of crude oil, and by testing for both nominal and real effects. We find significant evidence of nonlinearities for both aggregate and disaggregate indices. Our research highlights the importance of nominal prices and extreme events such as the Great Recession in the transmission of nonlinearities. Our results show that nonlinear impacts of the price of oil on the aggregate economy vary according to time period even within the post-1974 data. Since 2000, oil price volatility is up markedly, but the number of industries it impacts is down when compared with the full sample. This is in keeping with what one would expect, based on trend improvements in GDP per unit of energy use. However, for those series, where oil price volatility is significant, the impact of oil volatility is substantially higher than in the full sample; this runs contrary to what one might expect from the observed GDP per unit of energy use improvements.



Sectoral Interfuel Substitution in Canada: An Application of NQ Flexible Functional Forms

Ali Jadidzadeh and Apostolos Serletis

Year: 2016
Volume: Volume 37
Number: Number 2
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.37.2.ajad
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Abstract:
This paper focuses on the aggregate demand for electricity, natural gas, and light fuel oil in Canada as a whole and six of its provinces - Quebec, Ontario, Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Alberta, and British Columbia - in the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors. We employ the locally flexible normalized quadratic (NQ) expenditure function (in the case of the residential sector) and the NQ cost function (in the case of the commercial and industrial sectors), treat the curvature property as a maintained hypothesis, and provide evidence consistent with neoclassical microeconomic theory. We find that the Morishima interfuel elasticities of substitution are in general positive and statistically significant. Our results indicate limited substitutability between electricity and natural gas, but strong substitutability between light fuel oil and each of electricity and natural gas in most cases.



Interfuel Substitution: Evidence from the Markov Switching Minflex Laurent Demand System with BEKK Errors

Apostolos Serletis and Libo Xu

Year: 2019
Volume: Volume 40
Number: Number 6
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.40.6.aser
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Abstract:
We investigate interfuel substitution in the United States using the minflex Laurent demand system and a century of data (from 1919 to 2012). We relax the assumption of constant parameters in the demand system, and also relax the homoskedasticity assumption, instead assuming that the covariance matrix of the errors is time-varying. Our results are consistent with theoretical regularity and indicate that the Morishima elasticities of substitution are always positive for all pairs of the energy goods (suggesting substitutability), but exhibit large swings across two regimes, generally being higher in the high demand volatility regime before the 1950s.



Oil Prices and the Renewable Energy Sector

Evangelos Kyritsis and Apostolos Serletis

Year: 2019
Volume: Volume 40
Number: The New Era of Energy Transition
DOI: 10.5547/01956574.40.SI1.ekyr
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Abstract:
Energy security, climate change, and growing energy demand issues are moving up on the global political agenda, and contribute to the rapid growth of the renewable energy sector. In this paper we investigate the effects of oil price shocks, and also of uncertainty about oil prices, on the stock returns of clean energy and technology companies. In doing so, we use monthly data that span the period from May 1983 to December 2016, and a bivariate structural VAR model that is modified to accommodate GARCH-in-mean errors. Moreover, we examine the asymmetry of stock responses to oil price shocks of different sizes, with and without oil price uncertainty. Our evidence indicates that oil price uncertainty has no statistically significant effect on stock returns, and that the relationship between oil prices and stock returns is symmetric. Our results are robust to alternative model specifications and stock prices of clean energy companies.




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