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Recent Evidence for Large Rebound: Elucidating the Drivers and their Implications for Climate Change Models

Abstract:
New research using data spanning centuries reveals the presence of very large energy efficiency rebound magnitudes, calling into question the energy use forecasts relied on by international bodies investigating climate change mitigation policy. This article uses those recent results to highlight and explain the key drivers that future energy modelers need to incorporate.

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Energy Specializations: Energy Modeling – Energy Data, Modeling, and Policy Analysis; Energy Efficiency; Energy and the Economy –Economic Growth and Energy Demand; Energy and the Economy

JEL Codes: Q31: Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation: Demand and Supply; Prices, C53: Forecasting Models; Simulation Methods, Q35: Hydrocarbon Resources, Q41: Energy: Demand and Supply; Prices, Q43: Energy and the Macroeconomy, C58: Financial Econometrics

DOI: 10.5547/01956574.36.1.2

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Published in Volume 36, Number 1 of the bi-monthly journal of the IAEE's Energy Economics Education Foundation.