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Seasonal Patterns of Energy in China

This paper provides evidence on the relevance of modeling adequately the seasonal character of coal and electricity production across Chinese regions. Unlike other work, this paper relaxes the assumption of deterministic seasonality, allowing for time and regional variation in this economy. More specifically, we analyze and distinguish the type of seasonality around the year that prevails in the case of coal and electricity production of each individual Chinese province. Our results indicate that for the majority of the provinces seasonality is stochastic in both types of energy considered. Our findings provide new evidence of a Lunar New-Year effect in February and Summer as well as Winter effects in coal and electricity production. However, in terms of seasonal patterns and their evolution over time, there are significant differences between the Northern Southern regions. Besides for each type of energy, regional clusters matter for the appropriate design of energy-development policy.

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Energy Specializations: Energy Security and Geopolitics – Geopolitics of Energy; Energy Modeling – Energy Data, Modeling, and Policy Analysis; Coal – Markets and Prices; Electricity – Markets and Prices

JEL Codes: Q41: Energy: Demand and Supply; Prices, Q40: Energy: General, Q35: Hydrocarbon Resources

Keywords: Seasonality, Unobserved Components, China, Energy

DOI: 10.5547/01956574.34.2.6

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Published in Volume 34, Number 2 of the bi-monthly journal of the IAEE's Energy Economics Education Foundation.


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