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Modeling Term Structure Dynamics in the Nordic Electricity Swap Market

We analyze the daily returns of Nordic electricity swaps and identify significant risk premia in the short end of the market. On average, long positions in this part of the swap market yield negative returns. The daily returns are distinctively non-normal in terms of tail-fatness, but we find little evidence of asymmetry. We investigate if the flexible four-parameter class of normal inverse Gaussian (NIG) distributions can capture the observed stylized facts and find that this class of distributions offers a remarkably improved fit relative to the normal distribution. We also compare the fit with that of the four-parameter class of stable distributions; the NIG law outperforms the stable law in the vast majority of cases. Thus, the NIG family of distributions, which allows for stochastic dynamics in terms of L�vy processes that are suitable for pricing derivatives and Value-at-Risk measurements, is a serious candidate for modeling term structure dynamics in the Nordic electricity market.

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Energy Specializations: Energy Investment and Finance – Public and Private Risks, Risk Management; Energy Modeling – Energy Data, Modeling, and Policy Analysis; Electricity – Markets and Prices ; Electricity – Policy and Regulation

JEL Codes:
D81 - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
E61 - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
D42 - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design: Monopoly
E60 - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook: General

Keywords: Nordic electricity, Swap market, Value-at-Risk, Gaussian distribution

DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol31-No2-3

Published in Volume 31, Number 2 of The Quarterly Journal of the IAEE's Energy Economics Education Foundation.