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Bio-Energy Use and Low Stabilization Scenarios

Abstract:
This paper explores the potential for bio-energy production, and the implications of different values for the attainability of low stabilization targets. The impact of scenarios of future land use, yield improvements for bio-energy and available land under different sustainability assumptions (protection of biodiversity, risks of water scarcity and land degradation) are explored. Typical values for sustainable potential of bio-energy production are around 50-150 EJ in 2050 and 200-400 EJ in 2100. Higher bio-energy potential requires a development path with high agricultural yields, dietary patterns with low meat consumption, a low population and/or accepting high conversion rates of natural areas. Scenario analysis using four different models shows that low stabilization levels may be achieved with a bio-energy potential of around 200 EJ p.a. In such scenarios, bio-energy is in most models mainly used outside the transport sector.

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Energy Specializations: Energy Modeling – Other; Renewables – Biofuels ; Energy and the Environment – Policy and Regulation

JEL Codes:
C59 - Econometric Modeling: Other
Q16 - Agricultural R&D; Agricultural Technology; Biofuels; Agricultural Extension Services
E60 - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook: General

Keywords: Bio-Energy use, Low climate stabilization, Integrated assessment models, Land use

DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol31-NoSI-8

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Published in Volume 31, Special Issue of The Quarterly Journal of the IAEE's Energy Economics Education Foundation.