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Randomly Modulated Periodic Signals in Australias National Electricity Market

Abstract:
In this article, we use half hourly spot electricity prices and load data for the National Electricity Market (NEM) of Australia for the period from December 1998 to August 2007 to test for randomly modulated periodicity. In doing so, we apply signal coherence spectral analysis to the time series of half hourly spot prices and megawatt-hours (MWh) load demand from 7/12/1998 to 31/08/2007 using the FORTRAN 95 program developed by Hinich (2000). We detect relatively steady weekly and daily cycles in load demand but relatively more unstable cycles in prices.

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Energy Specializations: Energy Modeling – Energy Data, Modeling, and Policy Analysis; Electricity – Markets and Prices ; Electricity – Policy and Regulation

JEL Codes: Q41: Energy: Demand and Supply; Prices, Q42: Alternative Energy Sources, C58: Financial Econometrics, C53: Forecasting Models; Simulation Methods, Q54: Climate; Natural Disasters and Their Management; Global Warming

Keywords: Electricity market, spot prices, RMP model, Australia

DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol29-No3-6

Published in Volume 29, Number 3 of the bi-monthly journal of the IAEE's Energy Economics Education Foundation.

 

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