IAEE Members and subscribers to The Energy Journal: Please log in to access the full text article or receive discounted pricing for this article.

What Oil Export Levels Should We Expect From OPEC?

Abstract:
We analyze the levels of oil exports that should be expected from OPEC over the next 25 years. We search for a long-term, market-adaptive, robustly optimal strategy that best serves OPEC's interests, and conclude that OPEC export profits will be higher if OPEC expands its oil exports by enough to maintain OPEC exports share of non-OPEC demand. Yet the incentives for this export expansion are relatively small only a few percent in terms of discounted export profits and it requires that OPEC be farsighted, because the higher export profits from faster export growth wonot be significant within the next decade. Moreover, if OPEC does maintain its exports share of non-OPEC demand, the continued rapid growth of OPEC's own oil consumption will require that OPEC oil output will have to increase 60% by 2030, which will be a major challenge.

Purchase ( $25 )

Energy Specializations: Petroleum – Markets and Prices for Crude Oil and Products; Energy Security and Geopolitics – International Energy Organizations; Energy Modeling – Forecasting and Market Analysis

JEL Codes: Q38: Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation: Government Policy, L71: Mining, Extraction, and Refining: Hydrocarbon Fuels, Q37: Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation: Issues in International Trade, Q47: Energy Forecasting, Q41: Energy: Demand and Supply; Prices

Keywords: OPEC oil exports, oil price projections, oil demand, uncertainty

DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol28-No2-7

Published in Volume 28, Number 2 of the bi-monthly journal of the IAEE's Energy Economics Education Foundation.

 

© 2024 International Association for Energy Economics | Privacy Policy | Return Policy