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Estimating Future Emissions and Potential Reductions of HFCs, PFCs, and SF6

Atmospheric concentrations of HFCs, PFCs, and SF6 have been growing rapidly over the last 100 years, and they have the potential to continue growing rapidly, given the high growth rates of some emitting industries and the role of HFCs and PFCs as replacements for ozone-depleting substances. This analysis estimates global emissions of HFCs, PFCs, and SF6 from twelve source categories for the years 1990, 1995, 2000, 2010, and 2020, and provides guidance for projecting emissions beyond 2020. It also presents 2010 and 2020 marginal abatement cost curves (MACs) for the same source categories. To address issues unique to the fluorinated gases, the analysis accounts for the impact of international industry agreements to voluntarily reduce emission rates, and it aggregates emissions and MACs by gas lifetime as well as economic sector. Results indicate the availability of large, low-cost reductions, especially in developing countries, and the importance of better characterizing these reductions in future analysis.

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Energy Specializations: Energy Modeling – Other; Energy and the Environment – Air Emissions (other than greenhouse gases)

JEL Codes:
C59 - Econometric Modeling: Other
Q52 - Pollution Control Adoption and Costs; Distributional Effects; Employment Effects

Keywords: Climate change, Hydrofuorocarbons (HFCs), Perfluorocarbons (PFCs), Sulfur hexafluoride (SF6), Ozone depletion

DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-VolSI2006-NoSI3-4

Published in Multi-Greenhouse Gas Mitigation and Climate Policy, Special Issue #3 of The Quarterly Journal of the IAEE's Energy Economics Education Foundation.