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North American Natural Gas Markets: Summary of an Energy Modeling Forum Study

This paper summarizes the research by the Ninth Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) working group which focused on the evolution of the North American natural gas market through 2010.1 The group analyzed four standardized scenarios: upper and lower oil price paths, the low U.S. natural gas resource base, and high U.S. natural gas demand. The group sought to develop insights about the gas market's development under these scenarios by using economic models and additional analyses. Some of the most critical factors highlighted in the study, that will affect the usage and price of gas in the future, are the nature of the gas-oil substitution in the industrial and utility boiler market, which will depend on relative bumertip residual fuel oil to gas prices, the incremental costs of finding and producing additional gas supplies in the U.S. and Canada, and the amount of potential gas imports.

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Energy Specializations: Energy Modeling – Energy Data, Modeling, and Policy Analysis; Natural Gas – Markets and Prices

JEL Codes:
E61 - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
L13 - Oligopoly and Other Imperfect Markets

Keywords: Natural gas, North America, EMF report 9, Fuel switching, Gas exploration

DOI: 10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol11-No2-1

Published in Volume 11, Number 2 of The Quarterly Journal of the IAEE's Energy Economics Education Foundation.